IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2004-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag
  • Mr. Saade Chami
  • Mr. Ivan Tchakarov

Abstract

This paper uses a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) to estimate the macroeconomic effects of Yemen's full accession into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). After calibrating the model to Yemen and the GCC countries, several simulations were carried out to estimate the potential impact of economic integration on both. The paper draws two fundamental conclusions. First, further steps in regional integration would enhance competition and produce large economic benefits for both Yemen and the GCC countries. In particular, we show that in some cases economic integration could increase GDP in Yemen by as much as 18 percent and in the GCC by as much as 20 percent over the long run. Second, even if market structures do not improve substantially, GCC enlargement can still generate substantial spillover gains with consumption increasing by up to 7 percent in Yemen and 8 percent in the GCC, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Saade Chami & Mr. Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "What Are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?," IMF Working Papers 2004/152, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/152
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17553
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Tybout, 2000. "Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 11-44, March.
    2. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Baldwin, Richard E. & Forslid, Rikard, 2000. "Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: A q-theory approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 497-517, April.
    4. Magnus Blomstrom & Ari Kokko, 1997. "Regional Integration and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 6019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Edison, Hali J. & Levine, Ross & Ricci, Luca & Slok, Torsten, 2002. "International financial integration and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 749-776, November.
    6. Baldwin, Richard & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "Trade-induced Investment-led Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    8. Horn, Henrik & Lang, Harald & Lundgren, Stefan, 1995. "Managerial effort incentives, X-inefficiency and international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 117-138, January.
    9. repec:rus:hseeco:21551 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Anthony J. Venables, 2003. "Winners and losers from regional integration agreements," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 747-761, October.
    11. Blomstrom, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 1997. "Regional integration and foreign direct investment : a conceptual framework and three cases," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1750, The World Bank.
    12. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    13. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    14. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    15. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    16. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
    17. Peretto, Pietro F., 2003. "Endogenous market structure and the growth and welfare effects of economic integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 177-201, May.
    18. William T. Dickens & Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Interindustry Wage Differences and Industry Characteristics," NBER Working Papers 2014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Maurice Schiff & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15172, December.
    20. Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho & Rishi Goyal, 2004. "Emerging Strains in GCC Labor Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/071, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hebous, Shafik, 2006. "On the monetary union of the Gulf States," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 431, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2012. "Social Spending in Korea: Can it Foster Sustainable and Inclusive Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2012/250, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Burke, Edward, 2012. "One blood and one destiny? Yemen’s relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 55241, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Takagi, Shinji, 2012. "Establishing Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council: What Lessons for Regional Cooperation?," ADBI Working Papers 390, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "When leaner isn't meaner: measuring the benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Saade Chami & Selim Elekdag & Ivan Tchakarov, 2007. "What are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 521-548.
    4. Marzo, Massimiliano, 2009. "Wage or price-based inflation? Alternative targets in optimal monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1296-1313, June.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    6. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy M. Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2005. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 35-81, Springer.
    7. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    9. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    10. M. Marzo, 2001. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Regimes: the Role of Nominal Rigidities," Working Papers 411, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    11. Baldwin, Richard E. & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "The New Growth Theory: Its Logic and Trade Policy Implications," 1996: Implications of the New Growth Theory to Agricultural Trade Research and Trade Policy Conference, December 1996, Washington DC 50862, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    12. Sánchez-Martín, Miguel Eduardo & de Arce, Rafael & Escribano, Gonzalo, 2014. "Do changes in the rules of the game affect FDI flows in Latin America? A look at the macroeconomic, institutional and regional integration determinants of FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 279-299.
    13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2005. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 281-305, March.
    14. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    15. Anna Maria Mayda & Chad Steinberg, 2009. "Do South‐South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity‐level evidence from COMESA," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 1361-1389, November.
    16. Lombardo, Giovanni & Ravenna, Federico, 2014. "Openness and optimal monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 153-172.
    17. Szabó-Bakos, Eszter, 2007. "Az új keynesi elvek alkalmazása a Fed, az IMF és az Európai Központi Bank modellezési gyakorlatában [Application of new Keynesian principles in the modelling practice of the Fed, the IMF and the Eu," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-434.
    18. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "Effects of the exchange-rate regime on trade: the role of price setting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.
    20. Eric Jondeau & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Cross-Country Heterogeneity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 23-72, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.