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Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle

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  • Mr. Nicholas Staines

Abstract

The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Nicholas Staines, 2004. "Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2004/095, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/095
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Exenberger & Simon Hartmann, "undated". "The Dark Side of Globalization. The Vicious Cycle of Exploitation from World Market Integration: Lesson from the Congo," Working Papers 2007-31, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    2. Doussoulin, Jean Pierre & Mougenot, Benoit, 2022. "Mapping mining and ecological distribution conflicts in Latin America, a bibliometric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2013. "Aid, Exchange Rate Regimes and Post-conflict Monetary Stabilization," Working Papers 751, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2013.
    4. Ibrahim Alnafrah & Sulaiman Mouselli, 2020. "Constructing the Reconstruction Process: a Smooth Transition Towards Knowledge Society and Economy in Post-Conflict Syria," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 931-948, September.
    5. Nusrate Aziz & M. Niaz Asadullah, 2017. "Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 47-68, January.
    6. Mr. Antonio David & Mr. Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos & Marshall Mills, 2011. "Post-Conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?," IMF Working Papers 2011/149, International Monetary Fund.

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