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Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending: A Game- theoretic Real Options Approach

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Author Info
Takashi Shibata (Associate Professor, Tokyo metropolitan University (E-mail: tshibata@tmu.ac.jp))
Tetsuya Yamada (Associate Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: tetsuya.yamada@boj.or.jp))
Abstract

We develop a dynamic credit risk model for the case that banks compete to collect their loans from a firm falling in danger of bankruptcy. We apply a game-theoretic real options approach to investigate bankfs optimal strategies. Our model reveals that the bank with the larger loan amount, namely the main bank, provides an additional loan to support the deteriorating firm when the other bank collects its loan. This suggests that there exists rational forbearance lending by the main bank. Comparative statics show that as the liquidation value is lower, the optimal exit timing for the non-main bank comes at an earlier stage of business downturn and the optimal liquidation timing by the main bank is delayed further. As the interest rate of the loan is lower, the optimal exit timing for the non-main bank comes earlier. These analyses are consistent with the forbearance lending and exposure concentration of main banks observed in Japan.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 09-E-07.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:09-e-07

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Related research
Keywords: Credit risk; Relationship lending; Real option; Game theory; Concentration risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Elyasiani, Elyas & Goldberg, Lawrence G., 2004. "Relationship lending: a survey of the literature," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 315-330. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Baba, Naohiko, 2001. "Optimal Timing in Banks' Write-Off Decisions under the Possible Implementation of a Subsidy Scheme: A Real Options Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 113-41, November. [Downloadable!]
  3. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Boot, Arnoud W. A., 2000. "Relationship Banking: What Do We Know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 7-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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