Advanced Search

Accelerated Investment and Credit Risk under a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Real Options Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tetsuya Yamada

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: tetsuya.yamada@boj.or.jp))

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Empirical studies have found that a low interest rate environment accelerates firmsf investment and debt financing, leading to subsequent balance sheet problems in many countries in recent years. We examine the mechanism whereby firmfs debt financing and investment become more accelerated and the credit risk rises under a low interest rate environment from the perspective of a real options model. We find that firms tend to increase debt financing and investment not only under strong expectations of continued low interest rates but also when there are expectations of future interest rate increases, and such behavior causes higher credit risk. We also find that when future interest rate rises are expected, the investment decisions vary depending on how firms incorporate the possibility of future interest rises. Specifically, myopic firms make glast-minute investmentsh based on concerns over future interest rate hikes and this behavior increases their credit risk. In contrast, economically rational firms choose to decrease their investments, carefully considering the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/10-E-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 10-E-08.

    Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
    Length:
    Date of creation: Jun 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-08

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103
    Phone: +81-3-3279-111
    Fax: +81-3-3510-1265
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
    More information through EDIRC

    For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Kinken).

    Related research

    Keywords: Low interest rate environment; Investment behavior; Credit risk; Real options model; Corporate finance; Time-inconsistent discount rate; Behavioral economics;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    1. Zhdanov, Alexei, 2007. "Competitive Equilibrium with Debt," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 709-734, September.
    2. Suresh Sundaresan & Neng Wang, 2007. "Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 256-261, May.
    3. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June.
    4. Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-08

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.