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Trade Theory and Trade Facts

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  • Raphael Bergoeing

    () (Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile)

  • Timothy J. Kehoe

    (University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

This paper quantitatively tests the "new trade theory" based on product di.erentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to e.ect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large e.ects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then "backcasting" to 1961 to see what changes in crucial variables between 1961 and 1990 are predicted by the theory. The results show that, although the model is capable of explaining much of the increased concentration of trade among industrialized countries, it is not capable of explaining the enormous increase in the ratio of trade to income. Our analysis suggests that it is policy changes, rather than the elements emphasized in the new trade theory, that have been the most significant determinants of the increase in trade volume.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines in its series ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers with number inv129.

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Handle: RePEc:ila:ilades:inv129

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References

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  1. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-87, December.
  2. Dow, James & Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa, 1991. "Homothetic Preferences," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 176, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August.
  4. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
  5. Robert Feenstra, 2003. "Integration Of Trade And Disintegration Of Production In The Global Economy," Working Papers 986, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  6. Spence, Michael, 1976. "Product Selection, Fixed Costs, and Monopolistic Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 217-35, June.
  7. Hunter, Linda, 1991. "The contribution of nonhomothetic preferences to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 345-358, May.
  8. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-52, May.
  9. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier.
  11. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  12. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
  13. Markusen, James R, 1986. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1002-11, December.
  14. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  2. Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2009. "Variety-Skill Complementarity: A Simple Resolution of the Trade-Wage Inequality Anomaly," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2009-007, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
  3. Tianshu Chu & Thomas J. Prusa, 2004. "The Reasons for and the Impact of Antidumping Protection: The Case of People's Republic of China," Economics Study Area Working Papers 69, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  4. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Chen, Hogan & Kondratowicz, Matthew & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2005. "Vertical specialization and three facts about U.S. international trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, March.
  6. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2005. "Can Comparative Advantage Explain the Growth of US Trade?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0669, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why is manufacturing trade rising even as manufacturing output is falling?," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Atolia, Manoj & Yoshinori, Kurokawa, 2008. "Variety Trade and Skill Premium in a Calibrated General Equilibrium Model: The Case of Mexico," MPRA Paper 13698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Cunha, Alexandre B. & Teixeira, Arilton, 2002. "The Impacts of Trade Blocks and Tax Reforms on the Brazilian Economy," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_22, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  10. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
  11. Benjamin Brishman, 2010. "The Rise of Vertical Specialization Trade," BEA Working Papers 0051, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  12. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, . "Trade Integration and Growth," Working Papers 220, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  13. Marta Arespa, 2011. "Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model," Working Papers XREAP2011-19, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Nov 2011.

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