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Risk Shocks and Housing Markets

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  • Dorofeenko, Victor

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)

  • Lee, Gabriel S.

    (IREBS, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany, and Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)

  • Salyer, Kevin D.

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, USA)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for the business cycle. Also, we demonstrate that bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices; as a consequence, the volatility of housing prices is greater than that of output, as observed in the data. The model can also account for the observed countercyclical behavior of risk premia on loans to the housing sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 249.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:249

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Related research

Keywords: Agency costs; credit channel; time-varying uncertainty; residential investment; housing production; calibration;

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References

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  1. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  2. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2001. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 01-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  3. Dorofeenko, Victor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2002. "Time-Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel," Economics Series 118, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  5. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  6. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2004. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Working Paper Series 0326, European Central Bank.
  7. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
  8. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
  9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Martin Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Timothy S. Fuerst & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1998. "Agency costs and business cycles," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 583-597.
  12. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2007. "Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 141-168.
  14. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Bank of England working papers 169, Bank of England.
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Cited by:
  1. Viktor Dorofeenko & Gabriel S. Lee & Kevin D. Salyer, 2011. "Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis‐Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 151-169, 05.

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