IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/ifsewp/21-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

MPCs in an economic crisis: spending, saving and private transfers

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Crossley

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute)

  • Paul Fisher

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Peter Levell

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Hamish Low

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College)

Abstract

MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020 using receipt of a hypothetical unanticipated, one-time income payment. Reported MPCs are modest, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic uncertainty. Signi?cant fractions of respondents report they would use a windfall to pay down debt, or that they would change their transfer payments to or from family and friends. The latter means that the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Crossley & Paul Fisher & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2021. "MPCs in an economic crisis: spending, saving and private transfers," IFS Working Papers W21/26, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ifs.org.uk/uploads/WP202126-MPCs-in-an-economic-crisis-spending-saving-and-private-transfers.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    2. Jappelli, Tullio & Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 15525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio, 2015. "Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Andreas Fagereng & Martin B. Holm & Gisle J. Natvik, 2021. "MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 1-54, October.
    5. Claudia R. Sahm & Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2012. "Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 216-250, August.
    6. Bunn, Philip & Le Roux, Jeanne & Reinold, Kate & Surico, Paolo, 2018. "The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    8. Andreas Fuster & Greg Kaplan & Basit Zafar, 2021. "What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans [The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1760-1795.
    9. Shapiro, Matthew D & Slemrod, Joel, 1995. "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 274-283, March.
    10. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    11. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2322-2341.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Max. A. Mosley & Edmund Cornforth, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effect of the UK’s 2022 Cost-of-Living Payments," Discussion Papers 2316, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Crossley, Thomas F. & Fisher, Paul & Levell, Peter & Low, Hamish, 2023. "Stimulus payments and private transfers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    3. Belmonte, A & Pickard, H, 2022. "Safe at Last? LATE Effects of a Mass Immunization Campaign on Households’ Economic Insecurity," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 604, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crossley, Thomas F. & Fisher, Paul & Levell, Peter & Low, Hamish, 2023. "Stimulus payments and private transfers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Bernard, René, 2023. "Mental accounting and the marginal propensity to consume," Discussion Papers 13/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Jérémy Boccanfuso, 2022. "Consumption Response Heterogeneity and Dynamics with an Inattention Region," Working Papers wp1172, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Bernard, René, 2022. "Mental Accounting and the Marginal Propensity to Consume," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264186, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi & Rooij, Maarten van, 2021. "Heterogeneous wealth effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    7. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Wealth Shocks and MPC Heterogeneity," CSEF Working Papers 531, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    8. Andreas Fagereng & Martin B. Holm & Gisle J. Natvik, 2021. "MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 1-54, October.
    9. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. Fisher, Paul & Levell, Peter & Low, Hamish & Crossley, Thomas, 2020. "MPCs through COVID: spending, saving and private transfers," ISER Working Paper Series 2020-14, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    11. Song, Sang-yoon, 2022. "The heterogeneity of interest-induced MPC: Evidence from mortgage borrowers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 402-417.
    12. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    13. Sang-yoon Song, 2019. "The Cash-Flow Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Mortgage Borrowers," Working Papers 2019-20, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    14. Cho, Yunho & Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2019. "Marginal propensities to consume before and after the Great Recession," Working Papers 2019-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Sep 2021.
    15. Yunho Cho & Aarti Singh & James Morley, 2019. "Household Balance Sheets and Consumption Responses to Income Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Michael Gelman & Dan Silverman & Matthew Shapiro & Shachar Kariv, 2019. "Rational Illiquidity and Excess Sensitivity: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds," 2019 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Michael Gelman & Shachar Kariv & Matthew D. Shapiro & Dan Silverman, 2022. "Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(9), pages 2959-2991, September.
    18. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2020. "Reported MPC and Unobserved Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 275-297, November.
    19. Sang-yoon Song, 2020. "Leverage, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Heterogeneity of the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from South Korea," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1213-1244, December.
    20. Cumming, Fergus, 2022. "Mortgage cash-flows and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.