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Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds

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Listed:
  • Michael Gelman
  • Shachar Kariv
  • Matthew D. Shapiro
  • Dan Silverman

Abstract

Having low liquidity and a high marginal propensity to consume (MPC) are tightly linked. This paper analyzes this linkage in the context of income tax withholding and refunds. A theory of rational cash management with income uncertainty endogenizes the relationship between illiquidity and the MPC, which accounts for the finding that households tend to spend tax refunds as if they valued liquidity, yet do not act to increase liquidity by reducing their income tax withholding. The theory is supported by individual-level evidence, including a positive correlation between the size of tax refunds and the MPC out of those refunds.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Gelman & Shachar Kariv & Matthew D. Shapiro & Dan Silverman, 2019. "Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds," NBER Working Papers 25757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25757
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Vihriälä, Erkki, 2023. "Self-imposed liquidity constraints via voluntary debt repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    4. Qiongzhi Liu & Yifeng Xia, 2023. "The Energy-Saving Effect of Tax Rebates: The Impact of Tax Refunds on Corporate Total Factor Energy Productivity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Sydnee Caldwell & Scott Nelson & Daniel C. Waldinger, 2021. "Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications," Working Papers 2021-18, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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