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El Shock de los Precios del Petróleo en América Central: Implicancias Fiscales y Energéticas

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  • Daniel Artana
  • Fernando Navajas
  • Marcelo Catena

Abstract

Se estudian las implicancias fiscales y energéticas de la escalada en los precios del petróleo estimando efectos directos e indirectos. Dado que las economías se hallan en una fase expansiva, estimamos, un impacto “latente”sobre el PIB, respecto de las condiciones iniciales (año 2003), que a su vez lleva a una pérdida latente en la recaudación fiscal del 0. 7% PIB promedio entre países. A diferencia de este efecto latente, la perdida directa observada en la recaudación de impuestos a los hidrocarburos se estima en 0. 4% del PIB, también con diferencias entre países. Adicionalmente, los subsidios explícitos varían según el país pero en promedio representan el 1% del PIB. En suma, la combinación de efectos fiscales directos e indirectos promedio entre países de la escalada en los precios del petróleo se estima en un 1. 4% del PIB para el período 2003-06 (que se eleva a 2. 1% si se consideran los efectos “latentes”). Luego se examina la evidencia sobre el modo de intervención en la formación de precios y en el grado de “acolchonamiento” de impuestos a los combustibles de los distintos países. El mayor o menor traslado del shock a los precios domésticos de los combustibles derivo en dificultades diversas que emergieron en el sector eléctrico y de transporte, dando lugar a respuestas en materia de formación de precios, impuestos y subsidios. Finalmente se discuten las estrategias basadas en otros mecanismos posibles como los fondos de estabilización y se hacen algunas sugerencias generales y por país derivadas de la evidencia encontrada.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4556.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4556

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  1. Sanjeev Gupta & Benedict J. Clements & Kevin Fletcher & Gabriela Inchauste, 2002. "Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/140, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Robert Gillingham & David Locke Newhouse & David Coady & Kangni Kpodar & Moataz El-Said & Paulo A. Medas, 2006. "The Magnitude and Distribution of Fuel Subsidies," IMF Working Papers 06/247, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Benedict F. W. Bingham & James Daniel & Giulio Federico, 2001. "Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/75, International Monetary Fund.
  4. repec:idb:brikps:22078 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. David Coady & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro & Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Cont, Walter & Hancevic, Pedro & Navajas, Fernando H., 2011. "Energy populism and household welfare," MPRA Paper 35725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Alaimo, Veronica & Lopez, Humberto, 2008. "Oil intensities and oil prices : evidence for Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4640, The World Bank.

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