Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Testing Day's Conjecture that More Nitrogen Decreases Crop Yield Skewness

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

While controversy surrounds skewness attributes of typical yield distributions, a better understanding is important for agricultural policy assessment and for crop insurance rate setting. Day (1965) conjectured that crop yield skewness declines with an increase in low levels of nitrogen use, but higher levels have no effect. In a theoretical model based on the law of the minimum (von Liebig) technology, we find conditions under which Day’s conjecture applies. Employing four experimental plot datasets, we investigate the conjecture by introducing (a) a flexible Bayesian extension of the Just-Pope technology to incorporate skewness, and (b) a quantile-based measure of skewness shift. For corn yields, the Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence in favor of negative skewness at commercial nitrogen rates and for Day’s conjecture. There was weaker evidence in favor of positively skewed cotton yield and little evidence in favor of the conjecture. The results are also confirmed by the quantile-based measure.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/10wp511.pdf
File Function: Full Text
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/synopsis.aspx?id=1143
File Function: Online Synopsis
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 10-wp511.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:10-wp511

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 578 Heady Hall, Ames, Iowa 50011-1070
Phone: (515) 294-1183
Fax: (515) 294-6336
Email:
Web page: http://www.card.iastate.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: crop insurance; Gibbs sampler; Just and Pope technology; negative skewness; quantile regression.;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
  2. Yu, Tian & Babcock, Bruce A., 2010. "Are U.S. Corn and Soybeans Becoming More Drought Tolerant?," Staff General Research Papers 32098, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Tim J. Coelli & Chris O'Donnell, 2003. "A Bayesian Approach To Imposing Curvature On Distance Functions," CEPA Working Papers Series WP032003, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  4. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
  5. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, . "On the Distribution of Crop Yields: Does the Central Limit Theorem Apply?," DEOS Working Papers 1007, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  6. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
  7. Antle, John M, 1983. "Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 192-201, July.
  8. David A. Hennessy, 2004. "On Monoculture and the Structure of Crop Rotations," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-wp369, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  9. Koop, Gary M & Poirier, Dale J & Tobias, Justin, 2007. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Staff General Research Papers 12722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
  11. Terrell, Dek, 1996. "Incorporating Monotonicity and Concavity Conditions in Flexible Functional Forms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 179-94, March-Apr.
  12. Mitchell, Paul D., 2004. "Nutrient Best Management Practice Insurance and Farmer Perceptions of Adoption Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(03), December.
  13. Seo, Sangtaek & Mitchell, Paul D. & Leatham, David J., 2005. "Effects of Federal Risk Management Programs on Optimal Acreage Allocation and Nitrogen Use in a Texas Cotton-Sorghum System," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(03), December.
  14. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  15. Salvatore Di Falco & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2007. "On Crop Biodiversity, Risk Exposure, and Food Security in the Highlands of Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(3), pages 599-611.
  16. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  17. john M. Antle, 2010. "Asymmetry, Partial Moments, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1294-1309.
  18. David A. Hennessy, 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness Under Law of the Minimum Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 197-208.
  19. Phoebe Koundouri & Céline Nauges & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2006. "Technology Adoption under Production Uncertainty: Theory and Application to Irrigation Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 657-670.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jesse Tack & David Ubilava, 2013. "The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. corn production and downside risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 689-700, December.
  2. Du, Xiaodong & Hennessy, David A. & Yu, Cindy L. & Miao, Ruiqing, 2012. "Geography of Crop Yield Skewness," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124748, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2013. "Using Bayesian Estimation and Decision Theory to Determine the Optimal Level of Nitrogen in Cotton," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142951, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  4. Tolhurst, Tor & Ker, Alan P., 2013. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151269, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:10-wp511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.