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The Granger Non-Causality Test in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressions

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Author Info
Hiroaki Chigira
Taku Yamamoto
Abstract

In general, Wald tests for the Granger non-causality in vector autoregressive (VAR) process are known to have non-standard asymptotic properties for cointegrated systems. However, that may have standard asymptotic properties depending on the rank of the submatrix of cointegration. In this paper, we propose a procedure for conducting Granger non-causality tests that are based on discrimination of these asymptotic properties. This paper also investigate the finite sample performance of our testing procedure, and compare the testing procedure with conventional causality tests in levels VARfs.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number d03-07.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d03-07

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Related research
Keywords: Vector autoregression; Cointegration; Granger causality; Hypothesis testing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  4. Juan J. DOLADO & Helmut LUETKEPOHL, . "Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1994-44, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  5. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Yamamoto, Taku & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2003. "Tests for Long-Run Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers 2003-12, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 819R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 1987. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Taku Yamamoto & Eiji Kurozumi, 2006. "Tests for Long-Run Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(5), pages 703-723, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1001, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Taku Yamamoto & Eiji Kurozumi, 2003. "Tests for Long-Run Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d03-01, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Eiji Kurozumi & Taku Yamamoto, 2000. "Modified lag augmented vector autoregressions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yiannis Kamarianakis & Vagelis Kaslis, 2005. "Geographical competition-complementarity relationships between Greek regional economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p552, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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