Forecasting and Backcasting: Predicting the Impact of Events on the Future
AbstractIn many choices they makeâ€”-for example, choosing between a movie and a play or deciding whether to attend a sports game shortly before a birthday partyâ€”-consumers are guided by how they expect an event will make them feel. They may predict their feelings by forecasting (imagining their feelings when the impacting event occurs, then considering how those feelings might change over time) or by backcasting (imagining their feelings in a future period, then considering how those feelings might be different were the impacting event to happen). Four studies show that backcasters expect events to have a greater hedonic impact than do forecasters, largely because they think more about the impacting event. The studies also reveal that backcasters consider other information that forecasters tend to ignore.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Harvard University Department of Economics in its series Scholarly Articles with number 3549374.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Consumer Research
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- Simonson, Itamar, 1992. " The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 105-18, June.
- Ashwani Monga & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Michael Tsiros & Mona Srivastava, 2012. "How buyers forecast: Buyer–seller relationship as a boundary condition of the impact bias," Marketing Letters, Springer, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 31-45, March.
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