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Massive Civilian Displacement in Civil War: Assessing Variation in Colombia

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  • Abbey Steele

    ()
    (Yale University)

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    Abstract

    The displacement of civilians is a frequent, yet understudied, outcome of armed groups’ and civilians' behavior during civil wars. In particular, I find that displacement as a strategy of armed groups is an especially undeveloped area of study, and argue that a focus on mass displacements as the dependent variable can provide leverage for explaining variation in outcomes over time and across space. I suggest that three sets of factors explain the variation: armed groups’ goals, competition among armed groups, and community governance mechanisms. After outlining the theory and hypotheses, I consider the implications of the approach for appropriate units of analysis. With data on displacement in the Colombian civil war, I use both events of massive displacement and municipal population flows as indicators of the dependent variable to consider the plausibility of the framework’s empirical implications. Finally, I propose additional qualitative, micro-level research strategies to enable tests of the mechanisms underlying the theory.

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    File URL: http://www.hicn.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/wp29.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 29.

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    Length: 36 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:29

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    Web page: http://www.hicn.org

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    1. Klaus Deininger & Ana María Ibáñez & Pablo Querubin, 2004. "Towards Sustainable Return Policies for the Displaced Population: Why Are Some Displaced Households More Willing to Return than Others?," HiCN Working Papers 07, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Fabiosánchez & Ana María Díaz & Michelformisano, 2003. "Conflicto, Violencia Y Actividad Criminal En Colombia:Un Analisis Espacial," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002187, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    3. Ana Maria Ibáñez & Carlos Eduardo Vélez, 2005. "Civil Conflict And Forced Migration: The Micro Determinantes And The Welfare Losses Of Displacement In Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002127, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    4. World Bank, 2004. "Colombia : The Role of Land in Involuntary Displacement," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11280, The World Bank.
    5. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    6. Patricia Neira, 2004. "Desplazamiento Forzoso En Soacha ¿Se Recuperan Los Desplazados Del Choque Inicial?," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002299, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
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    Cited by:
    1. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    2. Luis Eduardo Sandoval & Sandra Liliana Botón & María Irma Botero, 2011. "Educación, desigualdad y desplazamiento forzado en Colombia," REVISTA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, UNIVERSIDAD MILITAR NUEVA GRANADA.
    3. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.

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