Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from a Natural Experiment
AbstractDoes a state’s use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? Nearly all existing theories and empirical studies conclude that such actions only fuel insurgencies by provoking insurgent mobilization. This proposition is tested using a natural experiment that draws on random artillery strikes by Russian forces in Chechnya (2000-05) to estimate the impact of indiscriminate violence on subsequent insurgent violence. A difference-in-difference (DD) estimation method is adopted in which shelled villages are matched with similar non-repressed settlements over identical time periods to estimate treatment effects. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages and their home districts (raiony) exhibit less post-treatment violence than control groups. In addition, commonly-cited “triggers” for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and duration of indiscriminate violence, are either insignificant or negatively correlated with insurgent attack propensity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 44.
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-25 (All new papers)
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