IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/stavef/2015_011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reserves Replacement and Oil and Gas Company Shareholder returns

Author

Listed:
  • Misund, Bård

    (UiS)

Abstract

This paper examines how oil and gas companies' reserves growth affects their share price returns. In particular we examine three issues affecting the relation between reserves changes and oil and gas firm returns. First, we examine if investors value reserves replacement as a result of exploration activities differently to reserves growth through acquisitions. In the second analysis we test if reserves replacement of oil reserves impacts stock returns differently than changes in gas reserves do. Third, we examine the impact of the Shale gas revolution and the subsequent oil and gas price divergence on the association between returns and replacement of oil versus gas reserves. The results suggest that investors seem to be indifferent to reserves replacement strategy (exploration or acquisition). However, we find that changes in oil reserves impact oil and gas company returns differently than changes in gas reserves does. Moreover, we find that there has been a structural shift in the relation between returns and changes in gas reserves (but not changes in oil reserves) after 2008, coinciding with the Shale gas revolution and the break in the oil-gas price link. This latter result can be relevant for understanding the impact of the recent fall in oil prices on investor valuation of oil and gas reserves

Suggested Citation

  • Misund, Bård, 2015. "Reserves Replacement and Oil and Gas Company Shareholder returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/11, University of Stavanger.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2015_011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/8078351/uis_wps_econ_fin/uis_wps_2015_11_misund.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-750, July.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    3. Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
    4. Faff, Robert W. & Brailsford, Timothy J., 1999. "Oil price risk and the Australian stock market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-87, June.
    5. Bård Misund & Petter Osmundsen, 2015. "Probable Oil and Gas Reserves and Shareholder Returns: The Impact of Shale Gas," CESifo Working Paper Series 5687, CESifo.
    6. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    7. Güntner, Jochen H. F., 2014. "How Do International Stock Markets Respond To Oil Demand And Supply Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(8), pages 1657-1682, December.
    8. Jeffrey J. Quirin & Kevin T. Berry & David O'Brien, 2000. "A Fundamental Analysis Approach to Oil and Gas Firm Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7&8), pages 785-820.
    9. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    11. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Dibooglu, Sel & Aleisa, Eisa, 2004. "Relationships among U.S. oil prices and oil industry equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 427-453.
    12. Sunil Mohanty & Aigbe Akhigbe & Tawfeek Al-Khyal & Turki Bugshan, 2013. "Oil and stock market activity when prices go up and down: the case of the oil and gas industry," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 253-272, August.
    13. Scholtens, Bert & Wagenaar, Robert, 2011. "Revisions of international firms’ energy reserves and the reaction of the stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3541-3546.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    15. Nandha, Mohan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 326-341, June.
    16. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    17. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    18. Bert Scholtens & Lei Wang, 2008. "Oil Risk in Oil Stocks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 89-112.
    19. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2014. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2005. "Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21.
    21. Kretzschmar, Gavin L. & Kirchner, Axel, 2009. "Oil price and reserve location--Effects on oil and gas sector returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 260-272.
    22. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    23. Kretzschmar, Gavin L. & Misund, Bard & Hatherly, David, 2007. "Market risks and oilfield ownership--Refining oil and gas disclosures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5909-5917, November.
    24. Scholtens, Bert & Yurtsever, Cenk, 2012. "Oil price shocks and European industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1187-1195.
    25. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
    26. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    27. McConnell, John J. & Muscarella, Chris J., 1985. "Corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 399-422, September.
    28. Kevin T. Berry & Charlotte J. Wright, 2001. "The Value Relevance of Oil and Gas Disclosures: An Assessment of the Market's Perception of Firms' Effort and Ability to Discover Reserves," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5‐6), pages 741-769, June.
    29. Magliolo, J, 1986. "Capital-Market Analysis Of Reserve Recognition Accounting," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24, pages 69-108.
    30. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    31. Misund, Bård, 2015. "Accounting for Oil and Gas Exploration Activities: A Triumph of Economics over Politics," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/15, University of Stavanger.
    32. Evan J. McSweeney & Andrew C. Worthington, 2008. "A comparative analysis of oil as a risk factor in Australian industry stock returns, 1980‐2006," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 131-145, June.
    33. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    34. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    35. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    36. Lee, Bi-Juan & Yang, Chin Wei & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2012. "Oil price movements and stock markets revisited: A case of sector stock price indexes in the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1284-1300.
    37. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    38. Misund, Bard & Mohn, Klaus, 2014. "Exploration Risk in Oil & Gas Shareholder Returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/4, University of Stavanger.
    39. Cortese, Corinne L. & Irvine, Helen J. & Kaidonis, Mary A., 2009. "Extractive industries accounting and economic consequences: Past, present and future," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 27-37.
    40. Kevin T. Berry & Charlotte J. Wright, 2001. "The Value Relevance of Oil and Gas Disclosures: An Assessment of the Market's Perception of Firms' Effort and Ability to Discover Reserves," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5-6), pages 741-769.
    41. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    42. Fields, Thomas D. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Vincent, Linda, 2001. "Empirical research on accounting choice," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 255-307, September.
    43. Talbot, Edward & Artiach, Tracy & Faff, Robert, 2013. "What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    44. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    45. M.A. Adelman and G.C. Watkins, 2008. "Reserve Prices and Mineral Resource Theory," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
    46. Petter Osmundsen & Frank Asche & Bard Misund & Klaus Mohn, 2006. "Valuation of International Oil Companies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 49-64.
    47. Mollick, André Varella & Assefa, Tibebe Abebe, 2013. "U.S. stock returns and oil prices: The tale from daily data and the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-18.
    48. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    49. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    50. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    51. Sadorsky, Perry, 2000. "The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-266, April.
    52. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    53. Jeffrey J. Quirin & Kevin T. Berry & David O’Brien, 2000. "A Fundamental Analysis Approach to Oil and Gas Firm Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7‐8), pages 785-820, September.
    54. Sridhar Gogineni, 2010. "Oil and the Stock Market: An Industry Level Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 995-1010, November.
    55. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
    56. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    57. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    58. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    59. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Danielsen, Albert L., 1984. "World oil prices and equity returns of major oil and auto companies," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 259-276, September.
    60. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    61. Ciner Cetin, 2001. "Energy Shocks and Financial Markets: Nonlinear Linkages," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-11, October.
    62. Corinne L. Cortese & Helen J. Irvine & Mary A. Kaidonis, 2009. "Extractive industries accounting and economic consequences: Past, present and future," Accounting Forum, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 27-37, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Misund, Bård, 2015. "Accounting for Oil and Gas Exploration Activities: A Triumph of Economics over Politics," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/15, University of Stavanger.
    2. Bård Misund & Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Valuation of proved vs. probable oil and gas reserves," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1385443-138, January.
    3. Bård Misund, 2017. "Accounting method choice and market valuation in the extractive industries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1408944-140, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Misund, Bård, 2015. "Accounting for Oil and Gas Exploration Activities: A Triumph of Economics over Politics," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/15, University of Stavanger.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    3. Misund, Bård & Osmundsen, Petter, 2015. "Probable Oil and Gas Reserves and Shareholder Returns: The Impact of Shale Gas," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/17, University of Stavanger.
    4. Bård Misund & Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Valuation of proved vs. probable oil and gas reserves," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1385443-138, January.
    5. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    6. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Sunil K. Mohanty & Joseph Onochie & Abdulrahman F. Alshehri, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia: evidence from industry level analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 595-619, October.
    8. Fatema Alaali, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: Evidence from UK Firms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 418-432.
    9. Alaali, Fatema, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: evidence from UK firms," MPRA Paper 78013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    12. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    13. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    15. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. David C Broadstock & Rui Wang & Dayong Zhang, 2014. "The direct and indirect effects of oil shocks on energy related stocks," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 146, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    17. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.
    18. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2016. "An event study analysis of oil and gas firm acreage and reserve acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 215-227.
    19. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    20. Tega Anighoro, 2020. "Value relevance of the components of oil and gas reserve quantity change disclosures of upstream oil and gas companies in the london stock exchange," Papers 2005.14659, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil and gas reserves; reserves replacement; stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2015_011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernt Arne Odegaard (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iouisno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.