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Labor shortages and wage growth

Author

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  • Frohm, Erik

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

This paper presents a novel measure of labor market conditions based on micro data from a large business survey in Sweden. The indicator, relative labor shortages (RLS), is the ratio of respondents’ quantitative assessment of labor shortages and current employment. Contrary to other surveybased measures of labor market conditions and the vacancy-unemployment ratio, RLS remained relatively subdued during the 2013-2018 recovery from the Great Recession. As the indicator is highly correlated with annual wage growth at the establishment-level, its slow recovery can help explain why wage growth in Sweden has been sluggish since the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Frohm, Erik, 2020. "Labor shortages and wage growth," Working Paper Series 394, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2018. "Missing wage growth in the euro area: is the wage Philips curve non-linear?," Economic Letters 9/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    4. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    5. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Resolving the missing deflation puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 15-34.
    6. Nickel, Christiane & Bobeica, Elena & Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Porqueddu, Mario, 2019. "Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries," Occasional Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    7. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2018. "On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 219-231, May.
    8. Frohm, Erik, 2020. "Price-setting and economic slack: Evidence from firm-level survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2018. "More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/050, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Groiss, Martin & Sondermann, David, 2023. "Help wanted: the drivers and implications of labour shortages," Working Paper Series 2863, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage inflation; labor shortages; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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