IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/nhhfms/2019_013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Jonas

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Jörnsten, Kurt

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Lillestøl, Jostein

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Ubøe, Jan

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, we use probabilistic methods to analyze learning effects in a behavioral experiment on the newsvendor model. We argue why we should believe that suggested orders follow a multinomial logit distribution, and use the single parameter in that model to extract information on learning effects. We revisit the data, analyzed previously by Bolton et al. (2012), and show that our model predicts the pull-to-center effect in these experimental data very well.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Ubøe, Jan, 2019. "Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods," Discussion Papers 2019/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2019_013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2621571
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AJ A. Bostian & Charles A. Holt & Angela M. Smith, 2008. "Newsvendor "Pull-to-Center" Effect: Adaptive Learning in a Laboratory Experiment," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 590-608, July.
    2. Filip Matêjka & Alisdair McKay, 2015. "Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices: A New Foundation for the Multinomial Logit Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 272-298, January.
    3. Gary E. Bolton & Axel Ockenfels & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2012. "Managers and Students as Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2225-2233, December.
    4. Sven B. Erlander, 2010. "Cost-Minimizing Choice Behavior in Transportation Planning," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-11911-8, Fall.
    5. Smith, Tony E., 1978. "A cost-efficiency principle of spatial interaction behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 313-337, December.
    6. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif, 2017. "Statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 251-261.
    7. Qin, Yan & Wang, Ruoxuan & Vakharia, Asoo J. & Chen, Yuwen & Seref, Michelle M.H., 2011. "The newsvendor problem: Review and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 361-374, September.
    8. Mirko Kremer & Stefan Minner & Luk N. Van Wassenhove, 2010. "Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 673-681, July.
    9. Andersson, Jonas & Ubøe, Jan, 2010. "Some aspects of random utility, extreme value theory and multinomial logit models," Discussion Papers 2010/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    10. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
    11. Maurice E. Schweitzer & Gérard P. Cachon, 2000. "Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 404-420, March.
    12. Xuanming Su, 2008. "Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 566-589, May.
    13. Anas, Alex, 1983. "Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-23, February.
    14. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2014. "Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1334-1345, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif, 2017. "Statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 251-261.
    2. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif K., 2014. "Probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model," Discussion Papers 2014/41, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Christian Köster & Heike Y. Schenk-Mathes, 2016. "Explanatory and predictive power of the adaptive learning model: average and heterogeneous behavior in a newsvendor context," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(4), pages 361-387, May.
    4. Yun Shin Lee & Enno Siemsen, 2017. "Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3226-3245, October.
    5. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
    6. Elahi, Ehsan & Lamba, Narasimha & Ramaswamy, Chinthana, 2013. "How can we improve the performance of supply chain contracts? An experimental study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-157.
    7. Ockenfels, Axel & Selten, Reinhard, 2014. "Impulse balance in the newsvendor game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-247.
    8. Karen Donohue & Özalp Özer, 2020. "Behavioral Operations: Past, Present, and Future," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 191-202, January.
    9. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Köster, Mats, 2017. "Salient compromises in the newsvendor game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 301-315.
    10. Song-Hee Kim & Jordan Tong & Carol Peden, 2020. "Admission Control Biases in Hospital Unit Capacity Management: How Occupancy Information Hurdles and Decision Noise Impact Utilization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 5151-5170, November.
    11. Diego D’Urso & Ferdinando Chiacchio & Evangelia Demerouti, 2021. "Measuring How Decision Support Systems Improve Newsvendors’ Performance: The Subjects’ Version," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    12. Castañeda, Jaime Andrés & Gonçalves, Paulo, 2018. "Ordering behavior in a newsstand experiment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 186-196.
    13. Gary E. Bolton & Sabrina Bonzelet & Tobias Stangl & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2023. "Decision making under service‐level contracts: The role of cost saliency," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1243-1261, April.
    14. Yufei Ren & Rachel Croson, 2013. "Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2502-2517, November.
    15. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2014. "Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1334-1345, May.
    16. Yingshuai Zhao & Xiaobo Zhao, 2016. "How a competing environment influences newsvendor ordering decisions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 204-214, January.
    17. Kalakbandi, Vinay Kumar, 2018. "Managing the misbehaving retailer under demand uncertainty and imperfect information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 939-954.
    18. Braathen, Christian & Thorsen, Inge & Ubøe, Jan, 2022. "Adjusting for Cell Suppression in Commuting Trip Data," Discussion Papers 2022/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    19. Khanra, Avijit & Soman, Chetan & Bandyopadhyay, Tathagata, 2014. "Sensitivity analysis of the newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 403-412.
    20. Michael Becker‐Peth & Kai Hoberg & Margarita Protopappa‐Sieke, 2020. "Multiperiod Inventory Management with Budget Cycles: Rational and Behavioral Decision‐Making," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(3), pages 643-663, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral OR; experimental economics; bounded rationality; probabilistic methods; pull-to-center effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2019_013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stein Fossen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dfnhhno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.