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Misspecifications due to aggregation of data in models for journeys-to-work

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Author Info

  • Gitlesen, Jens Petter

    ()
    (University of Stavanger)

  • Thorsen, Inge

    ()
    (Stord/Haugesund University College (HSH))

  • Ubøe, Jan

    ()
    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a new simulation procedure that can be used to examine validity of model extensions. Our testing regime is carried out on a number of different trip distribution models. We test the models on synthetic populations contructed from an aggregated set of worker categories, reflecting for instance different qualifications. The advantage of this approach is that a large number of tests can be carried out repeatedly. We then examine how specific attributes of spatial structure and worker heterogeneity are captured by different modeling alternatives. It is quite surpricing to see how some model formulations systematically report significant contributions in cases where (by construction of the data) no such effects are present. This illustrates the imminent risk of drawing wrong conclusions in empirical work, i.e., that model extensions based on behavioral principles can sometimes report significant contributions that are in fact spurious.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2004/13.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 22 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2004_013

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Postal: NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
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Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspx
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Related research

Keywords: Simulation procedure; Model extensions; Trip distribution models;

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References

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  1. A S Fotheringham, 1983. "A new set of spatial-interaction models: the theory of competing destinations," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 15(1), pages 15-36, January.
  2. Mark W Horner, 2002. "Extensions to the concept of excess commuting," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 34(3), pages 543-566, March.
  3. T J Fik & R G Amey & G F Mulligan, 1992. "Labor migration amongst hierarchically competing and intervening origins and destinations," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(9), pages 1271-1290, September.
  4. P A Pellegrini & A S Fotheringham, 1999. "Intermetropolitan migration and hierarchical destination choice: a disaggregate analysis from the US Public Use Microdata Samples," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(6), pages 1093-1118, June.
  5. Anas, Alex, 1983. "Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-23, February.
  6. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1982. "Spatial aggregation in gravity models: 2. One-dimensional population density models," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 14(4), pages 525-553, April.
  7. D G Steel & D Holt, 1996. "Rules for random aggregation," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 28(6), pages 957-978, June.
  8. T J Fik & G F Mulligan, 1990. "Spatial flows and competing central places: towards a general theory of hierarchical interaction," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 22(4), pages 527-549, April.
  9. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1982. "Spatial aggregation in gravity models: 3. Two-dimensional trip distribution and location models," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 14(5), pages 629-658, May.
  10. A S Fotheringham, 1984. "Spatial flows and spatial patterns," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 16(4), pages 529-543, April.
  11. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1982. "Spatial aggregation in gravity models. 1. An information-theoretic framework," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 14(3), pages 377-405, March.
  12. Jan Ub�e, 2004. "Aggregation of gravity models for journeys to work," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 36(4), pages 715-729, April.
  13. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1984. "Proximate aggregation-estimation of spatial interaction models," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 16(4), pages 467-486, April.
  14. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1982. "Spatial aggregation in gravity models: 4. Generalisations and large-scale applications," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 14(6), pages 795-822, June.
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