IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v173y2010i4p755-774.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Random‐effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Congdon

Abstract

Summary. Several studies have proposed methods for deriving summary scores for describing the in‐migrant attractivity of areas, as well as out‐migrant push (or conversely migrant retentivity). Simple in‐migration and out‐migrant rates (migrant totals divided by populations) do not correct for spatial separation or the migration context of a particular area, namely the size and proximity of nearby urban areas with populations at risk of migrating to an area, or offering potential destinations for out‐migrants from an area. An extended random‐effects gravity model is proposed to represent the influences of attractivity and retentivity after controlling for urban structure. Whereas the existing literature is focused on fixed effects modelling (and classical estimation), the focus in this paper is on a Bayesian hierarchical random‐effects approach that links estimates of pull‐and‐push scores across areas (i.e. allows scores to be spatially correlated) and also allows correlation between attractivity and retentivity within areas. As demonstrated by a case‐study of English local authorities, a random‐effects model may have a lower effective model dimension than a fixed effects model.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Congdon, 2010. "Random‐effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 755-774, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:173:y:2010:i:4:p:755-774
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00625.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00625.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00625.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ranjan, Priya & Tobias, Justin, 2007. "Bayesian Inference in the Gravity Model," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12721, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Hannu Tervo, 2001. "Does the compositional effect explain the association between rates of in-migration and out-migration?," ERSA conference papers ersa01p68, European Regional Science Association.
    3. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin‐Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967, December.
    4. Bo Cai & David B. Dunson, 2006. "Bayesian Covariance Selection in Generalized Linear Mixed Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 446-457, June.
    5. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    6. James P. LeSage & Manfred M. Fischer & Thomas Scherngell, 2007. "Knowledge spillovers across Europe: Evidence from a Poisson spatial interaction model with spatial effects," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(3), pages 393-421, August.
    7. W R Tobler, 1979. "Estimation of Attractivities from Interactions," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 11(2), pages 121-127, February.
    8. Song, J.J. & Ghosh, M. & Miaou, S. & Mallick, B., 2006. "Bayesian multivariate spatial models for roadway traffic crash mapping," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 246-273, January.
    9. P Boyle, 1998. "Migration and Housing Tenure in South East England," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(5), pages 855-866, May.
    10. A S Fotheringham, 1983. "Some Theoretical Aspects of Destination Choice and Their Relevance to Production-Constrained Gravity Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(8), pages 1121-1132, August.
    11. Greene, William, 2008. "Functional forms for the negative binomial model for count data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 585-590, June.
    12. Brezger, Andreas & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan, 2005. "BayesX: Analyzing Bayesian Structural Additive Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i11).
    13. Howard J. Wall, 2001. "articles: Voting with your feet in the United Kingdom: Using cross-migration rates to estimate relative living standards," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 80(1), pages 1-23.
    14. T J Fik & G F Mulligan, 1998. "Functional Form and Spatial Interaction Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(8), pages 1497-1507, August.
    15. T J Fik & G F Mulligan, 1990. "Spatial Flows and Competing Central Places: Towards a General Theory of Hierarchical Interaction," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 22(4), pages 527-549, April.
    16. Hughes, Gordon & McCormick, Barry, 1981. "Do Council Housing Policies Reduce Migration between Regions?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(364), pages 919-937, December.
    17. Priya Ranjan & Justin L. Tobias, 2007. "Bayesian inference for the gravity model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 817-838.
    18. D A Griffith & K G Jones, 1980. "Explorations into the Relationship between Spatial Structure and Spatial Interaction," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 12(2), pages 187-201, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Azose & Adrian Raftery, 2015. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1627-1650, October.
    2. Stefan Jestl & Mathias Moser & Anna Katharina Raggl, 2021. "Cannot keep up with the Joneses: how relative deprivation pushes internal migration in Austria," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(2), pages 210-231, November.
    3. Toshihide Mizuno & Mitsuhiro Fujimoto, 2022. "Directional dummies in gravity models: application to Japanese inter-municipal migration by age-sex group," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 161-171, August.
    4. Md. Mohsin Reza & Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & M. Rezaul Islam, 2019. "Economic and Social Well-Being of Asian Labour Migrants: A Literature Review," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 1245-1264, February.
    5. Elisa Panzera & Thomas de Graaff & Henri L.F. de Groot, 2021. "European cultural heritage and tourism flows: The magnetic role of superstar World Heritage Sites," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 101-122, February.
    6. Buyani Nkabinde & Lawrence Mpele Lekhanya & Nirmala Dorasamy, 2018. "The Rural Immigration Effects on Urban Service Delivery in South Africa (SA)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 11-24.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James P. LeSage & Christine Thomas-Agnan, 2015. "Interpreting Spatial Econometric Origin-Destination Flow Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 188-208, March.
    2. M. Alonso & M. Beamonte & P. Gargallo & M. Salvador, 2014. "Labour and residential accessibility: a Bayesian analysis based on Poisson gravity models with spatial effects," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 409-439, October.
    3. Arauzo-Carod, Josep-Maria & Manjón-Antolín, Miguel & Martínez , Óscar, 2015. "The Relocation of R&D Establishments in France: An Empirical Analysis," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 33, pages 97-119.
    4. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "The spatial structure debate in spatial interaction modeling: 50 years on," OSF Preprints 42vxn, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ronaldo Carpio & Meixin Guo, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of the Eurozone currency union effect," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 511-532, August.
    6. Manfred M. Fischer & James P. LeSage, 2020. "Network dependence in multi-indexed data on international trade flows," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Wilfried Koch & James P. LeSage, 2015. "Latent Multilateral Trade Resistance Indices: Theory and Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(3), pages 264-290, July.
    8. Sellner, Richard & Fischer, Manfred M. & Koch, Matthias, 2010. "A spatial autoregressive Poisson gravity model," MPRA Paper 77551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nancy Lozano-Gracia & Gianfranco Piras & Ana Maria Ibáñez & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2010. "The Journey to Safety: Conflict-Driven Migration Flows in Colombia," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 157-180, April.
    10. Chakraborty, A. & Beamonte, M.A. & Gelfand, A.E. & Alonso, M.P. & Gargallo, P. & Salvador, M., 2013. "Spatial interaction models with individual-level data for explaining labor flows and developing local labor markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 292-307.
    11. Daniel A. Griffith & Manfred M. Fischer & James LeSage, 2017. "The spatial autocorrelation problem in spatial interaction modelling: a comparison of two common solutions," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 75-86, March.
    12. Marrocu, Emanuela & Paci, Raffaele, 2013. "Different tourists to different destinations. Evidence from spatial interaction models," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 71-83.
    13. Daniel A. Griffith & Manfred M. Fischer, 2016. "Constrained Variants of the Gravity Model and Spatial Dependence: Model Specification and Estimation Issues," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roberto Patuelli & Giuseppe Arbia (ed.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling, chapter 0, pages 37-66, Springer.
    14. Benjamin R. Saville & Amy H. Herring, 2009. "Testing Random Effects in the Linear Mixed Model Using Approximate Bayes Factors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 369-376, June.
    15. Luping Zhao & Timothy E. Hanson, 2011. "Spatially Dependent Polya Tree Modeling for Survival Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 391-403, June.
    16. Gregory Corcos & Delphine M. Irac & Giordano Mion & Thierry Verdier, 2013. "The Determinants of Intrafirm Trade: Evidence from French Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 825-838, July.
    17. Nivedita Mukherji & Jonathan Silberman, 2021. "Knowledge flows between universities and industry: the impact of distance, technological compatibility, and the ability to diffuse knowledge," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 223-257, February.
    18. Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    19. Hu, Yushan & Zhang, Penglong, 2021. "Semiparametric estimation of varying trade elasticities in gravity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    20. Chengyan Yue & John C. Beghin, 2017. "Tariff Equivalent And Forgone Trade Effects Of Prohibitive Technical Barriers To Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 8, pages 139-150, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:173:y:2010:i:4:p:755-774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.