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A Power Market Forward Curve with Hydrology Dependence An Approach based on Artificial Neural Networks

Author

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  • Green, Rikard

    (Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, Lund University)

Abstract

This paper develops an hourly forward curve for power markets where the intra-day and intra-week shapes (profiles) depend on the level of the hydrological balance. The shaping model is based on a feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which is trained on a historical data set of hourly electricity spot prices from the Nord Pool market and weekly measurements of the Nordic hydrological balance. The yearly seasonal cycle is estimated with historical electricity forward prices from the Nasdaq OMX Commodities exchange. We calibrate the shaping model to prevailing electricity forward prices and proceed to demonstrate its most important properties. By using comparative static analysis we particulary focus on the hydro dependence of the shapes. We conclude the paper with a real world valuation task. By combining our proposed forward curve with a simple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process we price a strip of hourly call options on the electricity spot price under different hydrological scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Green, Rikard, 2015. "A Power Market Forward Curve with Hydrology Dependence An Approach based on Artificial Neural Networks," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2015/1, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:luwick:2015_001
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    File URL: http://www.lusem.lu.se/media/kwc/working-papers/2015/kwc-2015-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & BjøRn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003. "A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lunina, Veronika, 2016. "Joint Modelling of Power Price, Temperature, and Hydrological Balance with a View towards Scenario Analysis," Working Papers 2016:30, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power markets; forward curve; seasonality; artificial neural networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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