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Modeling US bank CDS spreads during the Global Financial Crisis with a deferred filtration pricing model

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  • Peter Spencer

Abstract

This paper uses a simplified version of the Duffie and Lando (2002) deferred filtration model to handle the effect of asymmetric information about US banks asset portfolios during the recent crisis, when banks were reluctant to lend to one another because they were not sure about the balance sheet strength of the counterparty and its ability to repay. The accounting lag in the deferred filtration model gives a very useful way of calibrating this uncertainty and provides convenient closed forms suitable for econometric models. I use these to model the default probabilities implied by CDS rates. Comparing the fit of this model with that of the standard full information structural defaultable debt pricing model strongly supports the hypothesis that investors were wary of the value of accounting information. The performance of the model is comparable to that of a benchmark reduced form hazard rate model, the workforce of the empirical literature to date.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 13/18.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:13/18

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Keywords: deferred filtration; default risk; credit crunch; CDS spread; LIBOR;

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  1. Jacco Thijssen, 2010. "Irreversible investment and discounting: an arbitrage pricing approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 295-315, July.
  2. Anderson, Ronald & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2000. "A comparative study of structural models of corporate bond yields: An exploratory investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 255-269, January.
  3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  4. Martin Baxter, 2007. "Lévy Simple Structural Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 593-606.
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