Using Simulated Currency Rainbow Options to Evaluate Covariance Matrix Forecasts
AbstractWhen choosing evaluation measures for variance and covariance forecasts one has to consider what the actual purpose of these forecasts is. In this paper we extend the results of Gibson and Boyer (1998) by looking at portfolios of rainbow currency options and how simulated trading of such options portfolios can be used as a preference free evaluation measure for the forecasted covariance matrix. The advantage of using portfolios instead of single options is the possibility it gives of relying on shorter return series. We apply the methodology to a system of four U.S. dollar exchange rates and compare the relative performance of different forecasting models. In doing this, we also apply and evaluate the fairly new Orthogonal GARCH technique to exchange rates, both with the option evaluation technique and with standard statistical measures
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2000:17.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2002, pages 216-230.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC
forecast evaluation; derivatives; multivariate GARCH; covariance matrix;
Other versions of this item:
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2002. "Using simulated currency rainbow options to evaluate covariance matrix forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 216-230, July.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-FMK-2000-11-14 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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- Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-86, March.
- Valeri Voev, 2007. "Dynamic Modeling of Large Dimensional Covariance Matrices," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Chong, James, 2005. "The forecasting abilities of implied and econometric variance-covariance models across financial measures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 463-490.
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