Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict

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Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict

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Tangerås, Thomas () (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

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Thomas Tangerås

Abstract

This is a game-theoretic analysis of the link between regime type and international conflict. The democratic electorate can credibly punish the leader for bad conflict outcomes, whereas the autocratic selectorate cannot. For the fear of being thrown out of office, democratic leaders are (i) more selective about the wars they initiate and (ii) on average win more of the wars they start. Foreign policy behaviour is found to display strategic complementarities. The likelihood of interstate war, therefore, is lowest in the democratic dyad (pair), highest in the autocratic dyad with the mixed dyad in between. The results are consistent with empirical findings.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Industrial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 751.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0751

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-07-05 (All new papers)
NEP-CDM-2008-07-05 (Collective Decision-Making)
NEP-POL-2008-07-05 (Positive Political Economics)

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