IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-01138074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Simon

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yasmine Essafi

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La coïncidence entre 1997 et 2007 d'un grand nombre de futurs retraités avec la très forte hausse des prix du résidentiel est-elle fortuite ? En se basant sur des éléments temporels et géographiques, complétés par un modèle de panel, cet article tend à confirmer l'existence d'une causalité démographique. La prise en compte de ces facteurs démographiques, en absolu et en structure, fait de plus apparaitre comme minimes les effets des taux, des revenus, de la construction et du divorce, sur les prix. Dans le contexte actuel de 'papy-boom', le modèle suggère une lente érosion des prix. Toutefois, une question se pose dès aujourd'hui, celle d'une concurrence intergénérationnelle. Alors que près de 75% des retraités sont propriétaires, l'orientation pro 'papy-boomers' de la politique du logement mérite d'être interrogée. Le parc résidentiel valant 6 300 milliards d'euros et ayant enregistré une plus-value de 3 700 milliards, on ne saurait le considérer comme un hors-bilan. Crise, déflation, austérité et 'papy-boom' ne seraient-ils pas des synonymes ?

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2015. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Working Papers halshs-01138074, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01138074
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01138074v3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01138074v3/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q IV), pages 43-53.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    3. Ohtake, Fumio & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1996. "The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-201, April.
    4. Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
    5. Gabriel Lee & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler & Bernhard Felderer & Christian Helmenstein, 2001. "Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 259-276, September.
    6. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Oecd, 2004. "Ageing and Financial Markets," Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2004(1), pages 85-120.
    8. Pierre-Henri Bono & Alain Trannoy, 2012. "Évaluation de l'Impact du Dispositif Scellier sur les Prix Fonciers," Working Papers halshs-00796188, HAL.
    9. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yasmine Essafi & Raphaël Languillon & Arnaud Simon, 2017. "The Relation between Aging and Housing Prices A Key Indicator for the French Spatial Wealth Reshaping [La relation Vieillissement-Prix immobiliers : un indicateur clé pour la réorganisation spatial," Working Papers halshs-01654445, HAL.
    2. Yasmine Essafi & Arnaud Simon, 2015. "Housing market and demography, evidence from French panel data," ERES eres2015_165, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    4. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Yoshihiro Tamai & Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very-Long-Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 48-74, Fall.
    7. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Lerbs, Oliver & Hiller, Norbert, 2015. "Aging and Urban House Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113136, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    10. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    12. Shimizu, Chihiro & Deng, Yongheng & Kawamura, Yasuhito & Nishimura, Kiyohiko, 2016. "Analysis of policy options to address Japan's declining population, shrinking birthrate, and aging society," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 33, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2014. "Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 19-32.
    14. Elod Takats, 2010. "Ageing and asset prices," BIS Working Papers 318, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Döring, Diether & Buth, Rainer & Rosengart, Anja Helena, 2007. "Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung," Arbeitspapiere 128, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    16. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2006. "Demographic Change, Saving and Asset Prices: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Hippolyte d’Albis & Élodie Djemaï, 2018. "Évolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 129-180.
    18. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 0. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence from OECD Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-35.
    19. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2004. "The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 10919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," Working Papers e068, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inégalités inter-générationnelles ; Prix immobiliers; Démographie; Vieillissement;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01138074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.