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Les émissions de CO2 du Brésil - L'impact du secteur UTCATF (usage des terres, changement d'affectation des terres et foresterie)

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  • Jérôme Trotignon

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure - Lyon)

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    Abstract

    L'Equation de Kaya exprime les émissions de CO2 d'un pays en fonction de facteurs économique, démographique et énergétique. Plusieurs travaux décomposent par période, à partir de cette équation, les effets sur les émissions brésiliennes des variables de population, de PIB par tête, d'intensité énergétique (contenu en énergie du PIB) et d'intensité carbonique (contenu en carbone de l'énergie). Mais ils ne tiennent pas compte des émanations de CO2 engendrées par le secteur UTCATF. Pour pallier cet inconvénient et mieux éclairer les enjeux des politiques climatiques, nous proposons une analyse de décomposition des facteurs d'évolution des émissions qui inclut les statistiques du secteur UTCATF. Son influence dans la variation des émissions totales s'avère prédominante, aussi bien comme stimulant sur la période de déforestation massive de 1994-2000, que comme modérateur de 2000 à 2005, année où s'ébauche le programme de déforestation évitée.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00746524.

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    Date of creation: 29 Oct 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746524

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    Keywords: analyse de décomposition ; Brésil ; déforestation ; équation de Kaya ; facteurs d'émission de CO2 ; intensité carbonique ; intensité énergétique ; secteur UTCATF;

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    1. Claudio Araujo & Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Eustaquio J. Reis, 2011. "Property rights and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Working Papers halshs-00556699, HAL.
    2. Sheinbaum, Claudia & Ozawa, Leticia & Castillo, Daniel, 2010. "Using logarithmic mean Divisia index to analyze changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico's iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1337-1344, November.
    3. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    4. André Meunié, 2004. "Controverses autour de la courbe environnementale de Kuznets," Documents de travail 107, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposing the decoupling of CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(8), pages 1459-1469, June.
    7. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1495-1504, March.
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