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Learning the optimal buffer-stock consumption rule of Carroll

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  • Murat Yildizoglu

    ()
    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579)

  • Marc-Alexandre Sénégas

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS : UMR5113 - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV)

  • Isabelle Salle

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS : UMR5113 - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV)

  • Martin Zumpe

    ()
    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS : UMR5113 - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

This article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen et Carroll (2001) about the ability of consumer to learn the optimal buffer-stock based consumption rule. To this aim, we develop an agent based model where alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the consumption behaviour that they yield. We show that neither purely adaptive learning, nor social learning based on imitation can ensure satisfactory consumption behaviours. By contrast, if the agents can form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in terms of its regularity, and its ability to improve performance (which is as a clear manifestation of learning). Our results indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and realistic economic behaviour, which, in some cases, can even converge to the optimal solution. This framework may therefore be used to develop macroeconomic models with adaptive dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00573689.

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Date of creation: 04 Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00573689

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Related research

Keywords: Consumption decisions; Learning; Expectations; Adaptive behaviour; Computational economics;

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References

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  1. Thomas Vallée & Murat Yildizoglu, 2009. "Convergence in the Finite Cournot Oligopoly with Social and Individual Learning," Working Papers halshs-00368274, HAL.
  2. Murat Yildizoglu, 2001. "Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks," Working Papers 2001-2, Equipe Industries Innovation Institutions, Université Bordeaux IV, France.
  3. Yildizoglu, Murat, 2002. "Competing R&D Strategies in an Evolutionary Industry Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 51-65, February.
  4. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  5. Vriend, Nicolaas J., 2000. "An illustration of the essential difference between individual and social learning, and its consequences for computational analyses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
  6. Oeffner, Marc, 2008. "Agent–Based Keynesian Macroeconomics - An Evolutionary Model Embedded in an Agent–Based Computer Simulation," MPRA Paper 18199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
  7. Happe, Kathrin, 2005. "Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis by Experimental Design and Metamodelling: An Application to Modelling Regional Structural Change," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24464, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Isabelle Salle & Pascal Seppecher, 2013. "Social Learning about Consumption," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, revised Sep 2013.
  2. Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Efficient Sampling and Metamodeling for Computational Economic Models," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-18, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  3. Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  4. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-15, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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