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Limits To Growth And Stochastics

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  • Nicolas Bouleau

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)

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    Abstract

    The aim of this article is to use probabilistic ideas to study predictive reasoning based on hypotheses and models, but without using Ito calculus, without writing any stochastic differential equations, in fact without writing any formulas at all. The aim is to extract from the study of stochastic processes those qualitative traits that have significant philosophical implications for the political decision-making process. Indeed, we need to acknowledge that the impact of the economy on the environment is not a result of temperance or mitigation of natural variations but rather that the economy itself - in addition to the underlying trends due to growth - is a major source of perturbations arising from the random fluctuations in prices or values that are caused by the anticipations made by the agents. Consequently we need to understand the additional effects that randomness superimposes on arguments based on the finiteness of the world and its flows of energy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00782948.

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    Date of creation: 20 Jun 2012
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    Publication status: Published, Real World Economics, 2012, 60, 92-106
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00782948

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    Related research

    Keywords: stochastic process; volatility; financial markets; environment; resources; prices; oil; brent;

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    1. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
    2. Nick Hanley, 1992. "Are there environmental limits to cost benefit analysis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 33-59, January.
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