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Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)

  • Rodica Loisel

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)

Abstract

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 1 GtC yr-1 in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand year around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO2 storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00487175.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Publication status: Published, international journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2011, 5, 1346-1358
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00487175

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00487175
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Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

Related research

Keywords: CCS; risk; analogue; storage safety; mortality; actuarial approach.;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Minh Ha-Duong & David Keith, 2003. "Carbon storage: the economic efficiency of storing CO2 in leaky reservoirs," Post-Print halshs-00003927, HAL.
  2. Ortwin Renn, 2004. "Perception of Risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(1), pages 102-114, January.
  3. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2009. "When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 181-189, January.
  4. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
  5. Felder, Frank A., 2009. "A critical assessment of energy accident studies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5744-5751, December.
  6. Ortwin Renn, 2004. "Perception of Risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 102-114, 01.
  7. Minh Ha-Duong & Rodica Loisel, 2009. "Zero is the only acceptable leakage rate for geologically stored CO2: an editorial comment," Post-Print hal-00348128, HAL.
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