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When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?


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  • Shafiee, Shahriar
  • Topal, Erkan
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    Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that "when non-renewable energy will be diminished" is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 181-189

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:181-189

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    Keywords: Worldwide fossil fuel reserve Econometrics model Non-renewable energy depletion time;


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    Cited by:
    1. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "Learning-by-doing and the costs of a backstop for energy transition and sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 122-132.
    2. Minh Ha-Duong & Rodica Loisel, 2011. "Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050," Post-Print halshs-00487175, HAL.
    3. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    4. Bell, William, 2012. "Reviewing the climate change adaptation readiness of the Australian national electricity market institutions," MPRA Paper 38112, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Feb 2012.
    5. Miah, M. Suruz & Ahmed, N.U. & Chowdhury, Monjur, 2012. "Optimum policy for integration of renewable energy sources into the power generation system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 558-567.
    6. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 178-189, September.
    7. Pathak, M.J.M. & Sanders, P.G. & Pearce, J.M., 2014. "Optimizing limited solar roof access by exergy analysis of solar thermal, photovoltaic, and hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 115-124.
    8. Foster, John & Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Sharma, Deepak & Sandu, Suwin & Froome, Craig & Wagner, Liam & Misra, Suchi & Bagia, Ravindra, 2013. "Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," MPRA Paper 47787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lim, Jeng Shiun & Abdul Manan, Zainuddin & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Hashim, Haslenda, 2012. "A review on utilisation of biomass from rice industry as a source of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3084-3094.
    10. Leong, Jun Xing & Daud, Wan Ramli Wan & Ghasemi, Mostafa & Liew, Kien Ben & Ismail, Manal, 2013. "Ion exchange membranes as separators in microbial fuel cells for bioenergy conversion: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 575-587.
    11. van Veldhuizen, Roel & Sonnemans, Joep, 2014. "Nonrenewable resources, strategic behavior and the hotelling rule: An experiment," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2014-203, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    12. Frota, Willamy M. & Rocha, Brígida R.P., 2010. "Benefits of natural gas introduction in the energy matrix of isolated electrical system in the city of Manaus - state of Amazonas - Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1811-1818, April.
    13. Ramachandra, T.V. & Durga Madhab, Mahapatra & Shilpi, Samantray & Joshi, N.V., 2013. "Algal biofuel from urban wastewater in India: Scope and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 767-777.
    14. Moheimani, Navid Reza & Parlevliet, David, 2013. "Sustainable solar energy conversion to chemical and electrical energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 494-504.
    15. Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Liu, Xiaoshuai, 2013. "Affordability of electric vehicles for a sustainable transport system: An economic and environmental analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 441-447.
    16. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Craig Froome & Phil Wild & Liam Wagner & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2012. "Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.


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