Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Shafiee, Shahriar
  • Topal, Erkan
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that "when non-renewable energy will be diminished" is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4TJ5YVW-1/2/6b4b868bd08fcc8aad2f3650a2effaee
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 181-189

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:181-189

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Worldwide fossil fuel reserve Econometrics model Non-renewable energy depletion time;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Salameh, Mamdouh G., 2003. "Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global energy gap in the 21st century?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1-2), pages 33-42, May.
    2. Mason, James E., 2007. "World energy analysis: H2 now or later?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1315-1329, February.
    3. Asif, M. & Muneer, T., 2007. "Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(7), pages 1388-1413, September.
    4. Chedid, R. & Kobrosly, M. & Ghajar, R., 2007. "A supply model for crude oil and natural gas in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2096-2109, April.
    5. Radetzki, Marian, 2002. "What will happen to the producer prices for fossil fuels if Kyoto is implemented?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 357-369, April.
    6. Grubb, Michael, 2001. "Who's afraid of atmospheric stabilisation? Making the link between energy resources and climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 837-845, September.
    7. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
    8. Khadse, Anil & Qayyumi, Mohammed & Mahajani, Sanjay & Aghalayam, Preeti, 2007. "Underground coal gasification: A new clean coal utilization technique for India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2061-2071.
    9. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac & Ugurlu, Berkin, 2006. "Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3836-3846, December.
    10. Lior, Noam, 2008. "Energy resources and use: The present situation and possible paths to the future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 842-857.
    11. Adnan Shihab-Eldin & Mohamed Hamel & Garry Brennand, 2004. "Oil outlook to 2025," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(3), pages 155-205, 09.
    12. Klass, Donald L., 2003. "A critical assessment of renewable energy usage in the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 353-367, March.
    13. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
    14. Goldemberg, Jose, 2006. "The promise of clean energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2185-2190, October.
    15. Demirbas, Ayhan, 2008. "Importance of biomass energy sources for Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 834-842, February.
    16. Kelly-Yong, Tau Len & Lee, Keat Teong & Mohamed, Abdul Rahman & Bhatia, Subhash, 2007. "Potential of hydrogen from oil palm biomass as a source of renewable energy worldwide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5692-5701, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. van Veldhuizen, Roel & Sonnemans, Joep, 2014. "Nonrenewable resources, strategic behavior and the hotelling rule: An experiment," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2014-203, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    2. Lim, Jeng Shiun & Abdul Manan, Zainuddin & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Hashim, Haslenda, 2012. "A review on utilisation of biomass from rice industry as a source of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3084-3094.
    3. Miah, M. Suruz & Ahmed, N.U. & Chowdhury, Monjur, 2012. "Optimum policy for integration of renewable energy sources into the power generation system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 558-567.
    4. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 178-189, September.
    5. Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Liu, Xiaoshuai, 2013. "Affordability of electric vehicles for a sustainable transport system: An economic and environmental analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 441-447.
    6. Frota, Willamy M. & Rocha, Brígida R.P., 2010. "Benefits of natural gas introduction in the energy matrix of isolated electrical system in the city of Manaus - state of Amazonas - Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1811-1818, April.
    7. Leong, Jun Xing & Daud, Wan Ramli Wan & Ghasemi, Mostafa & Liew, Kien Ben & Ismail, Manal, 2013. "Ion exchange membranes as separators in microbial fuel cells for bioenergy conversion: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 575-587.
    8. Ramachandra, T.V. & Durga Madhab, Mahapatra & Shilpi, Samantray & Joshi, N.V., 2013. "Algal biofuel from urban wastewater in India: Scope and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 767-777.
    9. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Phil Wild & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2013. "Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 6-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    10. Moheimani, Navid Reza & Parlevliet, David, 2013. "Sustainable solar energy conversion to chemical and electrical energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 494-504.
    11. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "Learning-by-doing and the costs of a backstop for energy transition and sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 122-132.
    12. Minh Ha-Duong & Rodica Loisel, 2011. "Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050," Post-Print halshs-00487175, HAL.
    13. Bell, William, 2012. "Reviewing the climate change adaptation readiness of the Australian national electricity market institutions," MPRA Paper 38112, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Feb 2012.
    14. Pathak, M.J.M. & Sanders, P.G. & Pearce, J.M., 2014. "Optimizing limited solar roof access by exergy analysis of solar thermal, photovoltaic, and hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 115-124.
    15. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    16. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Craig Froome & Phil Wild & Liam Wagner & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2012. "Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:181-189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.