IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04194180.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dissecting the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: A Fundamental Analysis Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhaobo Zhu

    (Audencia Business School, Shenzhen University [Shenzhen])

  • Wenjie Ding

    (SYSU - Sun Yat-sen University [Guangzhou])

  • Yi Jin

    (MUST - Macau University of Science and Technology)

  • Dehua Shen

    (NKU - Nankai University)

Abstract

This paper argues fundamental information help resolve information uncertainty that leads to high idiosyncratic volatility premium. The IVOL-return relation is negative for stocks with poor fundamental strength but positive for stocks with strong fundamental strength. The arrival of fundamental news weakens the negative IVOL effect. Our findings are robust for alternative model specifications. Moreover, the negative IVOL effect dominates the positive IVOL effect due to arbitrage asymmetry that buying is easier than short selling stocks. Consistent with arbitrage asymmetry, the negative IVOL effect is stronger for stocks with low institutional ownership and following high investor sentiment. Overall, we provide a simple fundamental-based explanation for idiosyncratic volatility puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaobo Zhu & Wenjie Ding & Yi Jin & Dehua Shen, 2023. "Dissecting the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: A Fundamental Analysis Approach," Post-Print hal-04194180, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04194180
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://audencia.hal.science/hal-04194180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://audencia.hal.science/hal-04194180/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turan G. Bali & Andriy Bodnaruk & Anna Scherbina & Yi Tang, 2018. "Unusual News Flow and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4137-4155, September.
    2. Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2018. "Do Chinese internet stock message boards convey firm-specific information?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Yexiao Xu & Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "Investigating the Behavior of Idiosyncratic Volatility," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 613-644, October.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    6. Gu, Ming & Jiang, George J. & Xu, Bu, 2019. "The role of analysts: An examination of the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly in the Chinese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 237-254.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Hodrick, Robert J. & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2009. "High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Zhaobo Zhu & Licheng Sun & Min Chen, 2023. "Fundamental strength and the 52-week high anchoring effect," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1515-1542, May.
    9. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    10. Jia, Boxiang & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Extreme sentiment and herding: Evidence from the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    12. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
    13. Yang, Yung Chiang & Zhang, Bohui & Zhang, Chu, 2020. "Is information risk priced? Evidence from abnormal idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 528-554.
    14. Brian Boyer & Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2010. "Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 169-202, January.
    15. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    16. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    17. Wei Huang & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee & Liang Zhang, 2010. "Return Reversals, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 147-168, January.
    18. Hameed, Allaudeen & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2015. "Industries and Stock Return Reversals," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 89-117, April.
    19. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    20. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Yung, Kenneth & Chen, Min, 2020. "Limited investor attention, relative fundamental strength, and the cross-section of stock returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    22. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    23. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    24. Meng, Yongqiang & Shen, Dehua & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "When stock price crash risk meets fundamentals," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    25. Tyler Shumway & Vincent A. Warther, 1999. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP's Nasdaq Data and Its Implications for the Size Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2361-2379, December.
    26. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    27. Joseph D. Piotroski & Eric C. So, 2012. "Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2841-2875.
    28. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, August.
    29. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    30. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    31. Hou, Kewei & Loh, Roger K., 2016. "Have we solved the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 167-194.
    32. Timothy C. Johnson, 2004. "Forecast Dispersion and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 1957-1978, October.
    33. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    34. Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2011. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 367-381, May.
    35. Caglayan, Mustafa Onur & Xue, Wenjun & Zhang, Liwen, 2020. "Global investigation on the country-level idiosyncratic volatility and its determinants," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 143-160.
    36. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    37. Hai, Hoang Van & Park, Jong Won & Tsai, Ping-Chen & Eom, Cheoljun, 2020. "Lottery mindset, mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    38. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    39. Goodell, John W. & Li, Mingsheng & Liu, Desheng & Peng, Hongfeng, 2022. "Depoliticization and market efficiency: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    40. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    41. Chu, Gang & Li, Xiao & Zhang, Yongjie, 2022. "Information demand and net selling around earnings announcement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    42. Nicole Y. Choi & Richard W. Sias, 2012. "Why Does Financial Strength Forecast Stock Returns? Evidence from Subsequent Demand by Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1550-1587.
    43. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Jiang, George J. & Xu, Danielle & Yao, Tong, 2009. "The Information Content of Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-28, February.
    45. Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2014. "A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 658-674, March.
    46. Zhaobo Zhu & Licheng Sun & Min Chen, 2023. "Fundamental Strength and the 52-Week High Anchoring Effect," Post-Print hal-04086076, HAL.
    47. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    48. Piotroski, JD, 2000. "Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 1-41.
    49. Brockman, Paul & Guo, Tao & Vivero, Maria Gabriela & Yu, Wayne, 2022. "Is idiosyncratic risk priced? The international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 121-136.
    50. Barber, Brad M. & De George, Emmanuel T. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2013. "The earnings announcement premium around the globe," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 118-138.
    51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    52. Goodell, John & Li, Mingsheng & Liu, Desheng, 2021. "Price informativeness and state-owned enterprises: Considering their heterogeneity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    53. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Chen, Min, 2019. "Fundamental strength and short-term return reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-39.
    54. Asher Curtis & Neil L. Fargher, 2014. "Does Short Selling Amplify Price Declines or Align Stocks with Their Fundamental Values?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2324-2340, September.
    55. Hu, Yitong & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Attention allocation and international stock return comovement: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    56. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    57. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    58. Yufeng Han & David Lesmond, 2011. "Liquidity Biases and the Pricing of Cross-sectional Idiosyncratic Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1590-1629.
    59. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Feldman & Shimon Kogan & Matthew Richardson, 2019. "Information, Trading, and Volatility: Evidence from Firm-Specific News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 992-1033.
    60. Shi, Yanlin & Liu, Wai-Man & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2016. "Public news arrival and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 159-172.
    61. Levy, Haim, 1978. "Equilibrium in an Imperfect Market: A Constraint on the Number of Securities in the Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 643-658, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    2. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    3. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    4. Fenner, Richard G. & Han, Yufeng & Huang, Zhaodan, 2020. "Idiosyncratic volatility shocks, behavior bias, and cross-sectional stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 276-293.
    5. Jorida Papakroni, 2018. "The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 861-896, April.
    6. Su, Zhi & Shu, Tengjia & Yin, Libo, 2018. "The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 497(C), pages 218-235.
    7. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    8. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk, costly arbitrage, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Is the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly driven by the MAX or MIN effect? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    11. Chen, Linda H. & Jiang, George J. & Xu, Danielle D. & Yao, Tong, 2020. "Dissecting the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 193-209.
    12. Poon, Percy & Yao, Tong & Zhang, Andrew (Jianzhong), 2022. "The alphas of beta and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    14. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Yung, Kenneth, 2020. "Fundamental strength strategy: The role of investor sentiment versus limits to arbitrage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Cosemans, Mathijs & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Salience theory and stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 460-483.
    16. Malagon, Juliana & Moreno, David & Rodríguez, Rosa, 2015. "The idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Corporate investment or investor mispricing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-238.
    17. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    18. Chen, Honghui & Zheng, Minrong, 2021. "IPO underperformance and the idiosyncratic risk puzzle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Bergbrant, Mikael & Kassa, Haimanot, 2021. "Is idiosyncratic volatility related to returns? Evidence from a subset of firms with quality idiosyncratic volatility estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    20. Bali, Turan G. & Gunaydin, A. Doruk & Jansson, Thomas & Karabulut, Yigitcan, 2023. "Do the rich gamble in the stock market? Low risk anomalies and wealthy households," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic Volatility; Fundamental Strength; Arbitrage Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04194180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.