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Subjectivity in Inductive Inference

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Author Info

  • Itzhak Gilboa

    ()
    (Tel Aviv University - Tel Aviv University, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - GROUPE HEC - CNRS : UMR2959)

  • Larry Samuelson

    ()
    (Department of Economics - Yale University)

Abstract

This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider a game in which Fate chooses a data generating process and agents are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate subjective considerations. The basic intuition is that agents who invoke no subjective considerations are doomed to "overfit" the data and therefore engage in ineffective learning. The analysis places no computational or memory limitations on the agents -- the role for subjectivity emerges in the presence of unlimited reasoning powers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00489433.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Publication status: Published, Theoretical Economics, 2012, 7, 2, 183-215
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00489433

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Keywords: induction; simplicity; Bayesian learning; prediction;

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  1. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Itzhak Gilboa & Larry Samuelson & David Schmeidler, 2011. "Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1811, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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