The win-first probability under interest force
AbstractIn a classical risk model under constant interest force, we study the probability that the surplus of an insurance company reaches an upper barrier before a lower barrier. We define this probability as win-first probability. Borrowing ideas from life-insurance theory, hazard rates of the maximum of the surplus before ruin, regarded as a remaining future lifetime random variable, are studied, and provide an original derivation of the win-first probability. We propose an algorithm to efficiently compute this risk-return indicator and its derivatives in the general case, as well as bounds of these quantities. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is compared with adaptations of other existing methods, and its interest is illustrated by the computation of the expected amount of dividends paid until ruin in a risk model with a dividend barrier strategy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00165791.
Date of creation: 16 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 2005, 37, 3, 421-442
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165791/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Ruin probability; hazard rate; upper absorbing barrier; constant interest force; risk-return indicator; win-first probability;
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brekelmans, R.C.M. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B., 2000.
"Approximating the Finite-Time Ruin Probability under Interest Force,"
2000-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Brekelmans, Ruud & De Waegenaere, Anja, 2001. "Approximating the finite-time ruin probability under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 217-229, October.
- Wang, Nan & Politis, Konstadinos, 2002. "Some characteristics of a surplus process in the presence of an upper barrier," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 231-241, April.
- Sundt, Bjorn & Teugels, Jozef L., 1995. "Ruin estimates under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 7-22, April.
- Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
- Sundt, Bjorn & Teugels, Jozef L., 1997. "The adjustment function in ruin estimates under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 85-94, April.
- Konstantinides, Dimitrios & Tang, Qihe & Tsitsiashvili, Gurami, 2002. "Estimates for the ruin probability in the classical risk model with constant interest force in the presence of heavy tails," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 447-460, December.
- Yuan, Haili & Hu, Yijun, 2008. "Absolute ruin in the compound Poisson risk model with constant dividend barrier," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(14), pages 2086-2094, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.