Stationarity of Global Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios
AbstractAnnual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with standard deviation of 0.02. With estimates of 21st century peak population levels in the 8-10 billion range, this implies that most emissions scenarios currently used for global warming forecasts are unrealistically high.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0503.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Global Warming; Structural Break; Emission Scenarios.;
Other versions of this item:
- Mark C. Strazicich & Ross McKitrick, 2005. "Stationarity of Global Per Capital Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios," Working Papers 05-03, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 497-515, August.
- Bjart Holtsmark, 2005. "Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?," Discussion Papers 438, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Ross McKitrick, 2007. "Why did US air pollution decline after 1970?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 491-513, November.
- Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008.
"Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data,"
Environmental & Resource Economics,
European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May.
- Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2007. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," MPRA Paper 3262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ordás Criado, C. & Grether, J.-M., 2011.
"Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: A robust distributional approach,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 637-665, September.
- Carlos Ordás Criado & Jean-Marie Grether, 2010. "Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: a robust distributional approach," CEPE Working paper series 10-70, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dianqin Wang).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.