Stationarity of Global Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios
AbstractAnnual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with standard deviation of 0.02. With estimates of 21st century peak population levels in the 8-10 billion range, this implies that most emissions scenarios currently used for global warming forecasts are unrealistically high.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 0503.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Global Warming; Structural Break; Emission Scenarios.;
Other versions of this item:
- Mark C. Strazicich & Ross McKitrick, 2005. "Stationarity of Global Per Capital Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios," Working Papers 05-03, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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- Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 497-515, August.
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- Bjart Holtsmark, 2005. "Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?," Discussion Papers 438, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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