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Stationarity of Global Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios

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Author Info
Ross McKitrick () (Department of Economics, University of Guelph)
Mark C. Strazicich (Department of Economics, Appalachian State University)

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Abstract

Annual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with standard deviation of 0.02. With estimates of 21st century peak population levels in the 8-10 billion range, this implies that most emissions scenarios currently used for global warming forecasts are unrealistically high.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0503.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2005-3

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Related research
Keywords: Global Warming; Structural Break; Emission Scenarios.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting
Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

Cited by:
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  1. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Bjart Holtsmark, 2005. "Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?," Discussion Papers 438, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ross McKitrick, 2007. "Why did US air pollution decline after 1970?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 491-513, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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