Learning the optimal buffer-stock consumption rule of Carroll
AbstractThis article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen et Carroll (2001) about the ability of consumer to learn the optimal buffer-stock based consumption rule. To this aim, we develop an agent based model where alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the consumption behaviour that they yield. We show that neither purely adaptive learning, nor social learning based on imitation can ensure satisfactory consumption behaviours. By contrast, if the agents can form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in terms of its regularity, and its ability to improve performance (which is as a clear manifestation of learning). Our results indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and realistic economic behaviour, which, in some cases, can even converge to the optimal solution. This framework may therefore be used to develop macroeconomic models with adaptive dynamics.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée in its series Cahiers du GREThA with number 2011-11.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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Consumption decisions; Learning; Expectations; Adaptive behaviour; Computational economics;
Other versions of this item:
- Murat Yildizoglu & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Isabelle Salle & Martin Zumpe, 2011. "Learning the optimal buffer-stock consumption rule of Carroll," Working Papers halshs-00573689, HAL.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2011-03-19 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-CMP-2011-03-19 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-19 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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