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Predictability of Future Index Returns based on the 52 Week High Strategy

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  • Mirela Malin
  • Graham Bornholt

Abstract

In a landmark paper, George and Hwang (2004) show that a stock's 52-week high price largely explains the momentum effect and that a strategy based on closeness to the 52-week high has better forecasting power for future returns than do momentum strategies. We find that the 52-week high strategy is unprofitable when applied to emerging markets indices, and that it is significantly less profitable than the corresponding momentum strategy. Overall the 52-week high effect is not as pervasive as the momentum effect.

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File URL: https://www120.secure.griffith.edu.au/research/items/69d343cd-b8a0-113e-189d-05b862ddd735/1/2009-07-predictability-of-future-index-returns-based-on-the-52-week-high-strategy.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Finance with number finance:200907.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:gri:fpaper:finance:200907

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Related research

Keywords: 52-week high; Momentum; Developed and emerging markets; Index returns;

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  1. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, . "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," CRSP working papers 480, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  2. Ben Marshall & Rachael Cahan, 2005. "Is the 52-week high momentum strategy profitable outside the US?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(18), pages 1259-1267.
  3. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  5. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. K. Rouwenhorst, 1996. "International Momentum Strategies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm36, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2008.
  7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  8. Balvers, Ronald J. & Wu, Yangru, 2006. "Momentum and mean reversion across national equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 24-48, January.
  9. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1998. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 489-519.
  10. Anthony J. Richards, 1997. "Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices," IMF Working Papers 97/182, International Monetary Fund.
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  12. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
  13. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  14. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," NBER Working Papers 7159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
  16. Jonathan Lewellen, 2002. "Momentum and Autocorrelation in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 533-564, March.
  17. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, 04.
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