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The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing

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  • THOMAS J. GEORGE
  • CHUAN-YANG HWANG
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    Abstract

    When coupled with a stock's current price, a readily available piece of information-the 52-week high price-explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. Nearness to the 52-week high dominates and improves upon the forecasting power of past returns (both individual and industry returns) for future returns. Future returns forecast using the 52-week high do not reverse in the long run. These results indicate that short-term momentum and long-term reversals are largely separate phenomena, which presents a challenge to current theory that models these aspects of security returns as integrated components of the market's response to news. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 59 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 5 (October)
    Pages: 2145-2176

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176

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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Hong-Yi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Hsin, Chin-Wen & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2014. "Does revenue momentum drive or ride earnings or price momentum?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 166-185.
    2. Hong Zhang, 2004. "Dynamic Beta, Time-Varying Risk Premium, and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2637, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    3. Bhootra, Ajay & Hur, Jungshik, 2013. "The timing of 52-week high price and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3773-3782.
    4. Jaehyung Choi, 2014. "Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum," Papers 1403.8125, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
    5. Chiao-Yi Chang, 2013. "Daily momentum profits with firm characteristics and investors’ optimism in the Taiwan market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 253-273, April.
    6. Susana Yu, 2012. "New empirical evidence on the investment success of momentum strategies based on relative stock prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 105-121, July.
    7. Jaehyung Choi & Young Shin Kim & Ivan Mitov, 2014. "Reward-risk momentum strategies using classical tempered stable distribution," Papers 1403.6093, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
    8. Jaehyung Choi & Sungsoo Choi & Wonseok Kang, 2012. "Momentum universe shrinkage effect in price momentum," Papers 1211.6517, arXiv.org.
    9. Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li, 2014. "Time Series Momentum and Market Stability," Research Paper Series 341, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga & Pedro Latoeiro, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws130605, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
    11. Mohammad Kazem Emadzade & Amir Hossein Hosseini & Mohammadali Shirazipour & Morteza Shokhmgar, 2013. "Investigating the Effect of Momentum Strategies on Investment Success in the Iran Stock Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 149-157, January.
    12. Mark Grinblatt & Bing Han, 2001. "Prospect Theory, Mental Accounting, and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2533, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2007.
    13. Badreddine, Sina & Galariotis, Emilios C. & Holmes, Phil, 2012. "The relevance of information and trading costs in explaining momentum profits: Evidence from optioned and non-optioned stocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 589-608.
    14. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Cross-listing and pricing efficiency: The informational and anchoring role played by the reference price," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4449-4464.
    15. Liao, Li-Chuan & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Chiu, Banghan, 2013. "Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors’ momentum trading behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 72-91.
    16. Berardino Palazzo, 2013. "Net leverage, risk, and credit spreads," 2013 Meeting Papers 436, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Basu, Devraj & Miffre, Joëlle, 2013. "Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2652-2664.
    18. Stephen Foerster, 2011. "Double then Nothing: Why Stock Investments Relying on Simple Heuristics May Disappoint," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 115-140, November.
    19. Murtazashvili, Irina & Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2013. "When do characteristics-sorted factors mechanically explain returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 119-143.
    20. Malin, Mirela & Bornholt, Graham, 2013. "Long-term return reversal: Evidence from international market indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-17.
    21. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.

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