Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data
AbstractWe investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply di fferent regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Courant Research Centre PEG in its series Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers with number 118.
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Platz der Goettinger Sieben 3; D-37073 Goettingen, GERMANY
Phone: +49 551 39 14066
Fax: + 49 551 39 14059
Web page: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/82144.html
vulnerability; poverty; ROC; German panel data;
Other versions of this item:
- Katja Landau & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 481, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Landau, Katja & Klasen, Stephan & Zucchini, Walter, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century, Verein fÃ¼r Socialpolitik / German Economic Association 66057, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O29 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shubham Chaudhuri & Jyotsna Jalan & Asep Suryahadi, 2002. "Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data: A methodology and estimates from Indonesia," Discussion Papers, Columbia University, Department of Economics 0102-52, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Annelies Debels & Leen Vandecasteele, 2008. "The Time Lag In Annual Household-Based Income Measures: Assessing And Correcting The Bias," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(1), pages 71-88, 03.
- Joachim R. Frick & Markus M. Grabka, 2003. "Missing Income Data in the German SOEP: Incidence, Imputation and its Impact on the Income Distribution," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 376, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 45-64, 03.
- Frick, Joachim R. & Grabka, Markus M., 2007.
"Item Non-Response and Imputation of Annual Labor Income in Panel Surveys from a Cross-National Perspective,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3043, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Joachim R. Frick & Markus M. Grabka, 2007. "Item Non-response and Imputation of Annual Labor Income in Panel Surveys from a Cross-National Perspective," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 49, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Joachim R. Frick & Markus M. Grabka, 2007. "Item Non-response and Imputation of Annual Labor Income in Panel Surveys from a Cross-National Perspective," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 736, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2004. "Evaluating different approaches to estimating vulnerability," Social Protection Discussion Papers 30159, The World Bank.
- Raghbendra Jha & Tu Dang, 2008. "Vulnerability to poverty in Papua New Guinea," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2008-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
- Luc J. Christiaensen & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2005.
"Towards an Understanding of Household Vulnerability in Rural Kenya,"
Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE),
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 520-558, December.
- Christiaensen, Luc. J. & Subbarao, Kalanidhi, 2004. "Toward an understanding of household vulnerability in rural Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3326, The World Bank.
- Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth, 2009. "Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks: A Novel Method Applied in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1222-1234, July.
- Selten,Reinhard, .
"Properties of a measure of predictive succes,"
Discussion Paper Serie B, University of Bonn, Germany
130, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Joon-Ho Hahm & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1999. "Consumption Adjustment under Time-Varying Income Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 32-40, February.
- Lusardi, Annamaria, 1996. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 81-90, January.
- Yuan Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2009. "How Precisely Can We Estimate Vulnerability to Poverty?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 277-287.
- Ethan Ligon & Laura Schechter, 2003.
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C95-C102, March.
- Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) 19899, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002, Royal Economic Society 128, Royal Economic Society.
- Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers 29138, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dominik Noe).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.