How Precisely Can We Estimate Vulnerability to Poverty?
AbstractThere are alternative definitions of vulnerability to poverty. Most researchers prefer to define vulnerability to poverty as the probability of a household or individual falling into poverty in the future. Based on this definition and using household survey panel data from rural China, this paper attempts to assess the extent to which we can measure vulnerability to poverty. The assessment is based on comparisons between estimated vulnerability and actually observed poverty. The authors find that the precision of estimation, first, varies depending on the vulnerability line; their results suggest setting the line at 50% in order to improve predictive power. Second, precision depends on how permanent income is estimated. Assuming log-normal distribution of future income, it is preferable to use past weighted average income as an estimate of permanent income rather than using regressions to gauge permanent income. Third, estimation precision depends on the chosen poverty line. The percentage of overlap between households estimated to be vulnerable and those actually poor rises when a higher poverty line of US$2 is used instead of US$1.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Oxford Development Studies.
Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CODS20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ebru Çaglayan & Naime Irem Kosan & Melek Astar, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Household Poverty in Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(1), pages 181-191, March.
- Katja Landau & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2012.
"Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data,"
Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers
118, Courant Research Centre PEG.
- Landau, Katja & Klasen, Stephan & Zucchini, Walter, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66057, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Katja Landau & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 481, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Nuno Crespo & Sandrina B. Moreira & Nádia Simões, 2012.
"An Integrated Approach for the Measurement of Inequality, Poverty and Richness,"
Working Papers Series 2
12-03, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
- Nuno Crespo & Sandrina Berthault Moreira & Nádia Simões, 2011. "An integrated approach for the measurement of inequality, poverty, and richness," Working Papers 205, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.