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Modeling The Non-Linear Behaviour of Inflation Deviations From The Target

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  • Andros Gregoriou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

This study tests for and models non-linearities in inflation deviations from the target in five OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting over the 1990s. Our tests reject the linearity hypothesis and we show that the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model is capable of capturing the non-linear behavior ofinflation misalignments. The extent of inflation deviations from the target varies across the OECD countries, with countries that consistently undershoot the target having a rapid adjustment process, whereas countries that overshoot the target have a slower revision back to equilibrium.

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File URL: http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_22203_en.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2005_12.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_12

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  1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 1999. "Inflation zone targeting," Working Paper Series 0008, European Central Bank.
  2. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
  3. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
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Cited by:
  1. A. Robert Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2007. "Inflation dynamics in the US - a nonlinear perspective," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24499, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer & Kulaksizoglu, Sebnem, 2009. "The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis," MPRA Paper 23780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andrew Phiri, 2012. "Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 247-269, August.
  4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," Working Papers 2009/2, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.

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