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Capital Structure Over The Business Cycle

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Author Info
David Amdur () (Department of Economics, Georgetown University)

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Abstract

Why are aggregate equity payouts and debt issued positively correlated over the business cycle in U.S. data? Standard real business cycle (RBC) models have few predictions about capital structure, because they assume that financial markets are frictionless. On the other hand, the tradeoff theory of capital structure argues that financial frictions determine firms' optimal mix of debt and equity financing. We develop an RBC model with financial frictions and use it to explain some stylized facts about aggregate U.S. debt and equity flows. We document that debt issued and equity payouts are (i) positively correlated with output, (ii) positively correlated with investment, and (iii) positively correlated with each other. Our model can account for these stylized facts. We also calibrate the model to the periods 1952 - 1983 and 1984 - 2007 in order to explain the finding that real variables have become less volatile in the later subperiod, while financial variables have become more volatile. By varying both the scale of technology shocks and the degree of financial frictions, we are able to account for both results. Classification-JEL Codes: E32, G32, G35

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Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~08-08-03.

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Date of creation: 03 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~08-08-03

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Postal: Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
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Web page: http://econ.georgetown.edu/

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Postal: Marcia Suss Administrative Officer Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
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Related research
Keywords: Debt-equity finance; RBC models; business cycle moderation; corporate finance; capital structure; tradeoff theory; payout policy;

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. den Haan, 2006. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 06-45, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Credit Ratings and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1035-1072, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James H. Scott Jr., 1976. "A Theory of Optimal Capital Structure," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(1), pages 33-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hansen, Gary D., 1997. "Technical progress and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1005-1023, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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