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The tax shift from labor to consumption in Italy: a fiscal microsimulation analysis using EUROMOD

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  • Andrea Taddei

    ()
    (University of Genoa, Italy)

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    Abstract

    The aim of this paper is to simulate a tax shift reform from labor to consumption in Italy and observe the distributional impact of this policy on households. The microsimulation model used is EUROMOD, which is uniquely focused on direct taxes, social contributions and benefits. Through a two steps matching between the Italian income survey (IT-SILC) and the Households Budget Survey (Indagine sui consumi delle famiglie italiane – ISTAT), the model was enriched with data on consumption and it has been possible to simulate also indirect taxes (VAT and excises). Once calculated the baseline, the reform has been simulated by a decrease in social security contributions paid by employees, compensated with a rise in standard VAT in order to obtain Government budget neutrality. The main finding is that the simulated reform increase the regressive of the system without changes in the redistribution strategies or with a more progressive income taxation. To obtain a measure of the change in households wealth, has been used the Welfare Gain index which considered both consumption and income changes. The results are also shown at regional level.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Genoa, Research Doctorate in Public Economics in its series DEP - series of economic working papers with number 9/2012.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:gea:wpaper:9/2012

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    Keywords: direct and indirect taxation; fiscal microsimulation; progressivity; tax reform; redistribution;

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