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How do VAT changes affect the economy? An illustration using the new area-wide model

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  • Günter Coenen
  • Peter McAdam

Abstract

Changes in VAT rates, such as the one foreseen to be implemented in Germany next year, and their economic consequences are a recurrent issue in the policy debate. What are the key mechanisms through which VAT changes affect economic activity and price and wage developments? And what are the implications of pre-announcing their implementation? To address these questions, this article employs a calibrated version of the New Area-Wide Model which is currently under development within the Directorate General Research. This model builds on recent advances in developing micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models suitable for quantitative policy analysis. JEL Classification: E32, E62

Suggested Citation

  • Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam, 2006. "How do VAT changes affect the economy? An illustration using the new area-wide model," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 4, pages 2-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2006:0004:1
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    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/researchbulletin04en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    3. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    2. Andrea Taddei, 2012. "The tax shift from labor to consumption in Italy: a fiscal microsimulation analysis using EUROMOD," DEP - series of economic working papers 9/2012, University of Genoa, Research Doctorate in Public Economics.
    3. Bernardi, Luigi, 2009. "Le tasse in Europa dagli anni novanta [Taxation in Europe since the Years 1990s]," MPRA Paper 23441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; tax reform; euro area; DSGE modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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