NAIP toolkit for Malabo domestication: Economic modeling of agricultural growth and investment strategy, case study of Kenya

The Malabo Agenda on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation has brought technical challengesto the development of agricultural strategiesby expanding the number of commitments and goalsunder the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme.In this paper, we describe and apply an economic modeling framework that wasdeveloped to identify the agricultural investment priority areas for a country and to define milestones to track its progress towards the Malabo goals. The framework consists ofa three-layer simulation model that aimstocapturemultiple Malabo commitments and goals. First, the agricultural productivity analysis uses the stochastic meta-frontier technique to assess opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Second, the economywide analysis uses an agricultural and investment focused computable general equilibrium model to capture the Malabo goalson agricultural growth, intra-Africantrade of agricultural commodities, and public and private agricultural investments.Third, the microeconomic analysis builds upon statistical economic modeling to allow direct measurement and simulation of the Malabo goals on poverty and hunger. The modeling framework is applied to Kenya using the most recent data.TheMalabo Agenda simulation results indicate that Kenya’s current nonagriculture-led growth isnot sufficient to achieving the Malabo overarching goals on poverty and hunger. Agriculture-led growthcomplemented by extendedsocial assistanceis more likely to close the income growth and inequality gaps and contribute to achieving the multiple Malabo commitments and goals by 2025.