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Food inflation and food price volatility in India: Trends and determinants

Author

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  • Sekhar, C.S.C.
  • Roy, Devesh
  • Bhatt, Yogesh

Abstract

The study analyzes food inflation trends in India over the last decade. Annual trends show that different commodities have contributed to food inflation in different years and that no single commodity shows uniformly high inflation. A decomposition exercise shows that eggs, meat, fish, milk, cereals, and vegetables were generally the main contributors to recent food inflation. The contribution of pulses, except pigeon peas (arhar), and of edible oils remained low. Fruits and vegetables displayed a much higher degree of intrayear volatility, and high-weight commodities in the national consumption basket also showed very high inflation rates, which is a cause for concern. Results of the econometric analysis show that both supply and demand factors are important. Cereal and edible oil prices appear to be mainly driven by supply-side factors such as production, wage rates, and minimum support prices. For pulses, the effects of supply- and demand-side factors appear almost equal. The prices of eggs, meat, fish, milk, and fruits and vegetables appear to be driven mainly by demand-side factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sekhar, C.S.C. & Roy, Devesh & Bhatt, Yogesh, 2017. "Food inflation and food price volatility in India: Trends and determinants," IFPRI discussion papers 1640, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcos J. G. Rambalducci & Barbara R. Feltrin, 2018. "The Impact Of The Monetary Value Of The Basket Of Goods In The Economy Of Londrina/Pr – Brazil," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 12(1), pages 37-51.
    2. C. S. C. Sekhar & Devesh Roy & Yogesh Bhatt, 2018. "Food inflation and volatility in India: trends and determinants," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 65-91, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    food prices; agricultural policies; food policies; inflation; Q10 Agriculture: General; Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices; Q18 Agricultural Policy; Food Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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