Endogenous State Prices, Liquidity, Default, and the Yield Curve
AbstractWe show, in an exchange economy with default, liquidity constraints and no aggregate uncertainty, that state prices in a complete markets general equilibrium are a function of the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank. Our model is derived along the lines of Dubey and Geanakoplos (1992). Twoagents trade goods and nominal assets (Arrow-Debreu (AD) securities) to smooth consumption across periods and future states, in the presence of cash-in-advance financing costs. We show that, with Von Neumann-Morgenstern logarithmic utility functions, the price of AD securities, are inversely related to liquidity. The upshot of our argument is that agents’ expectations computedusing risk-neutral probabilities give more weight in the states with higher interest rates. This result cannot be found in a Lucas-type representative agent general equilibrium model where there is neither trade or money nor default. Hence, an upward yield curve can be supported in equilibrium, even though short-term interest rates are fairly stable. The risk-premium in the term structure is therefore a pure default risk premium.Keywords: cash-in-advance constraints; risk-neutral probabilities; state prices; term structure of interest ratesJEL Classification: E43; G12
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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Other versions of this item:
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Charles A. E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2007. "Endogenous State Prices, Liquidity, Default, and the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2007fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Charles A. E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Endogenous State Prices, Liquidity, Default, and the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe15, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Charles Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2007. "Endogenous state prices, liquidity, default, and the yield curve," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24479, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2007. "Endogenous State Prices, Liquidity, Default, and the Yield Curve," Economics Series Working Papers 2007-FE-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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