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Demographic Trends in Developing Countries: Convergence or Divergence Processes?

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Abstract

Recent years are characterized by both a rise in life expectancy and a further fall in fertility in the developing countries (DCs). These processes coexist with large heterogeneity according to the specific living conditions of countries. The aim of our research is to analyze the trends of specific demographic parameters regarding mortality and fertility, jointly with some socio-economic characteristics of more than 100 DCs, to assess if convergence patterns in demographic behaviors prevail or if marked differences persist. As the paths of mortality and fertility in fact differ deeply over space and time, we need a specific statistical multi-way analysis technique that consider the time series dimension. Thus, we apply Dynamic Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis of trajectories in order to evaluate at macro-level the main demographic trends of DCs in the 1995-2010 period. Results let us reconsider the processes of convergence and enlighten the heterogeneity among clusters.

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  • Maria Silvana Salvini & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Isabella Corazziari, 2015. "Demographic Trends in Developing Countries: Convergence or Divergence Processes?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2015_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    • Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2015_03
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    File URL: https://labdisia.disia.unifi.it/wp_disia/2015/wp_disia_2015_03.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Maria Pesando & GFC team, 2019. "Global Family Change: Persistent Diversity with Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 133-168, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality; Fertility; Developing Countries; Dynamic Factor Analysis; Cluster Analysis; Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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