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HIV/AIDS and its impact on convergence in life expectancy, infant and child survival rates

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Eric Neumayer

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Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of HIV/AIDS on the global convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing two scenarios. One is based on actual estimated and extrapolated values given the existence of the epidemic (‘AIDS- scenario’). The other is based on hypothetical values based on estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is taken out (‘No AIDS-scenario’). Both â- and ó-convergence analysis is undertaken both with and without weighting by population size. In the ‘AIDS-scenario’ convergence in life expectancy becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. That these results are mainly due to the epidemic follows from the convergence analysis in the ‘No AIDS-scenario’, where all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear. The reason why HIV/AIDS has such a strong impact on convergence is because the disease is most prevalent in low-income countries with rampant poverty, deficient health care systems and relatively low life expectancies and survival rates.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series HEW with number 0405001.

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Date of creation: 11 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwphe:0405001

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I - Health, Education, and Welfare

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ram, Rati & Schultz, Theodore W, 1979. "Life Span, Health, Savings, and Productivity," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(3), pages 399-421, April.
  2. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2003. "The Economics of HIV/AIDS: A Survey," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 27-49, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hobijn, Bart & Franses, Philip Hans, 2001. "Are living standards converging?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 171-200, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pritchett, Lant, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kenny, Charles, 2005. "Why Are We Worried About Income? Nearly Everything that Matters is Converging," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. B. Hobijn & Ph.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "Are Living Standards Converging?," Econometric Institute Report 105, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sala-i-martin, X., 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Papers 734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  10. Neumayer, Eric, 2003. "Beyond income: convergence in living standards, big time," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 275-296, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John C. Caldwell, 2000. "Rethinking the African AIDS Epidemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 117-135. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2003. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," NBER Working Papers 9765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Richard A. Easterlin, 2000. "The Worldwide Standard of Living since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 7-26, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Theil, Henri & Theil, Henri, 1979. "World income inequality and its components," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 99-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Stephen C. Smith & Randa Sab, . "Human Capital Convergence: International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/32, International Monetary Fund.
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  1. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 2005. "Prévalence du VIH et pauvreté en Afrique : Evidence micro et macro-économétrique appliquée au Burkina Faso," Documents de travail 112, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
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