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The CPI for rents: a case of understated inflation

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  • Theodore M. Crone
  • Leonard I. Nakamura
  • Richard Voith

Abstract

Until the end of 1977, the U.S. consumer price index for rents tended to omit rent increases when units had a change of tenants or were vacant, biasing inflation estimates downward. Beginning in 1978, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implemented a series of methodological changes that reduced this nonresponse bias, but substantial bias remained until 1985. The authors set up a model of nonresponse bias, parameterize it, and test it using a BLS microdata set for rents. From 1940 to 1985, the official BLS CPI-W price index for tenant rents rose 3.6 percent annually; the authors argue that it should have risen 5.0 percent annually. Rents in 1940 should be only half as much as their official relative price; this has important consequences for historical measures of rent-house-price ratios and for the growth of real consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 06-7.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:06-7

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Keywords: Consumer price indexes ; Rent ; Inflation (Finance);

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  1. David Genesove, 2003. "The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 844-853, November.
  2. Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Thesia I. Garner & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Puzzling Divergence of U.S. Rents and User Costs, 1980-2004: Summary and Extensions," Working Papers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 409, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Concetta Rondinelli & Giovanni F. Veronese, 2010. "Housing rent dynamics in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 62, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard P. Voith, 2004. "Hedonic estimates of the cost of housing services: rental and owner-occupied units," Working Papers 04-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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