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Shortages of Critical Goods in a Global Economy: Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy

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Abstract

This paper studies the role for optimal trade and industrial policy to mitigate shortages of critical goods following global shocks. We develop a dynamic model of trade with producers of essential and non-essential goods owned by heterogeneous households under incomplete markets. Shocks that increase global demand for critical goods lead to underinvestment relative to an economy with a representative household or complete markets. Trade exacerbates the shock as producers reallocate domestic sales toward exports. Shortages can be mitigated, increasing welfare, by taxing exports while subsidizing imports and production. These policy changes are consistent with cross-country evidence following recent shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Leibovici & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2020. "Shortages of Critical Goods in a Global Economy: Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy," Working Papers 2020-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Dec 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:87897
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    2. Michael Sposi & Ana Maria Santacreu & B Ravikumar, 2016. "Capital Accumulation and Welfare Gains from Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    4. R. C. Geary, 1950. "A Note on "A Constant-Utility Index of the Cost of Living"," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 18(1), pages 65-66.
    5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Trade and Globalization

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    Cited by:

    1. Viral V. Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bacchetta, Marc & Bekkers, Eddy & Piermartini, Roberta & Rubinova, Stela & Stolzenburg, Victor & Xu, Ankai, 2021. "COVID-19 and global value chains: A discussion of arguments on value chain organization and the role of the WTO," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-3, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Bernard Hoekman & Anirudh Shingal & Varun Eknath & Viktoriya Ereshchenko, 2022. "COVID‐19, public procurement regimes and trade policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 409-429, February.
    4. Simon Evenett & Matteo Fiorini & Johannes Fritz & Bernard Hoekman & Piotr Lukaszuk & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Filippo Santi & Anirudh Shingal, 2022. "Trade policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic crisis: Evidence from a new data set," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 342-364, February.
    5. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; trade policy; industrial policy; shortages of critical goods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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