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Convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization

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Author Info
Riccardo DiCecio
Charles S. Gascon

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Abstract

We use non-parametric distribution dynamics techniques to reassess the convergence of per capita personal income (PCPI) across U.S. states and across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan portions of states for the period 1969-2005. The long-run distribution of PCPI is bimodal for both states and metro/nonmetro portions. Further- more, the high income mode of the distribution across metro and nonmetro portions corresponds to the single mode of the long-run distribution across metro portions only. These results (polarization or club-convergence) are reversed when weighting by population. The long run distributions across people are consistent with convergence. Migration and urbanization are the forces behind convergence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-002.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-002

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Keywords: Migration; Internal ; Income distribution;

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  1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. George Hammond, 2004. "Metropolitan/non-metropolitan divergence: A spatial Markov chain approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 543-563, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cletus C. Coughlin & Thomas B. Mandelbaum, 1988. "Why have state per capita incomes diverged recently?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 24-36. [Downloadable!]
  6. Don J. Webber & Paul White & David O. Allen, 2005. "Income Convergence across U.S. States: An Analysis Using Measures of Concordance and Discordance," Journal of Regional Science, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 565-589. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2005. "Regional convergence, inequality, and space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 155-176, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Costas Azariadis & John Stachurski, 2003. "A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution," KIER Working Papers 570, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
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  10. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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